Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 2-NOV-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25				Signal History
Comments: Our model still favors the bulls.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 11/2/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	35	7	3.04	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	126	25.2	1.34	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	255	51	0.5
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	70	14	-0.44
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	5	1	-1.23	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	9	1.8	-3.96	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	416	83.2	0.97
Total # of DOWN Moves	84	16.8	-0.86
Total	500	100	0.66
Note:
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments:

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 1-NOV-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25				Signal History
Comments: Mkt seems in holding pattern, and waiting for some events. I reduced some long exposures today.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 11/1/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	5	1	2.69	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	30	6	1.34	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	208	41.6	0.37
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	214	42.8	-0.44
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	34	6.8	-1.33	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	9	1.8	-2.5	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	243	48.6	0.54
Total # of DOWN Moves	257	51.4	-0.63
Total	500	100	-0.06
Note:
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: The 2nd picture is Jeff Augen plot for SPY, notice that there is no red mover (move down over 2STD) since sept.

How I use Jeff Augen Chart

The BullsBears Execl has a sheet for AugenChart. I got some emails asking me how I use it.

The Augen Chart is to find “extreme” movers (moves over 2STD). These extreme movers are excellent hints to tell you which direction the stock will take.

Generally speaking, when a stock experiences a green mover, it is a strong signal indicates it wants to move even higher. When an uptrending stock experience a 2STD move down, it may indicate the trend change from up to down. However, a move over 2STD may also be an “exhaustion” move.

Below is an example for AMZN.

I use Augen Chart as a check if the stock is safe to go long or not. If the LATEST big move is a red mover(move down over 2STD), I would be very concerned if I have long position in that stock.

If the latest mover is a green mover, or if the latest bar is red, however the stock is higher than the highest red point (i.e., the stock completely recovered from red mover), then I would feel OK to go long.


The NFLX’s 4 latest movers are all green.

The QQQQ chart tells us the market does not have any red movers since September.

CREE’s latest mover is RED, until it recovers the highest point of red bar, going long here is a concern to me.

I own NVLS, as the latest mover is green:

I make decision to go long or short primary based upon on chart patterns, but I use the Augen Chart as a final check.