Monday, February 1, 2010

A simple mechanical trading system that beats S&P in a big way

(1) Calculate the relative strength ranking from a carefully selected list of 77 ETFs on the 6 months period.
(2) Select top 10 ranks ETF, buy theses 10 ETFs with equal dollar amount.
(3) Re-calculate ranking every 2 weeks. Sold any ETFs droped from top 10 at the next day closed prices, and replaced with ETFs that make into top 10.
(4) Do nothing during the 2 weeks waiting period.

The results for the last 3 years shown below:
Year 2009:






















Year 2008:






















Year 2007:




It beated S&P in BIG way 3 years in a row !!!


Note:
(1)The commisions are not included in the testing.
(2) I cannot go back to year 2006, because many ETFs were not available in year 2006.
(3) Different starting day may change the results little bit.
(4) Different re-balance period will change results too. We are using 2 weeks.
(5) The list of ETFs is the most important factor.

(6) Year 2007 was a range market year. Year 2008 was a down market. Year 2009 was a up market. And this strategy performed good in all 3 years.

I know the past performance may not repeat in the future, but I will start put my real money into this strategy starting next week.

I will also put the current ranking in this blog. Please check back later.
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