Saturday, April 24, 2010

An Easier Way to Become a Better Trader

We all want to become a better trader. There are many books and seminars on this subject. Most of them, if not all, are concentrating on the weakness of the human behavior: We are biased; or we are not disciplined enough.


Yes, we are biased on almost everything, religion and politics.

With regarding to stock market, the psychologist told us we have action bias, bias for stories, confirmation bias, conformity bias, sunk cost fallacy, disposition effect, empathy gap, endowment effect, hindsight bias, illusion of control, loss aversion, myopia, overconfidence, placebo effect, self-attribution bias and self-serving bias…etc. The list is very long.

Psychologists also told us these biases are so destructive in trading, thus they concluded “trading is 100% psychology”. Their books are best sellers, and they become famous trading coaches.

Reading market books by psychologists made me feel good in the past, because it helped me to find the “reasons” (really “excuses”) to my trading failures. However, I recently realized that “to be more disciplined” is just a lip service if you don’t have a method or a system you fully trusted, and I also realized that to change human tendency or human nature is a very hard.

I can do stock research in a rational, objective, and unbiased way when my money is not in the market. However, I am instantly biased and emotional when my hard earned money is at risk.

We all want to buy cheap and sell dear. That’s why we buy stock at $10, because it was $20 a few days ago. We thought it is cheap. The stock will usually become even cheaper to $5. We are afraid to buy a stock at $20, because a few weeks ago, it was only $10. After the stock ups and ups to $30 a share. We kicked ourselves. We wondered why we did not buy at $20. That’s our human nature.

Bias is our human nature; it is very hard to change that. An easier way we can change is our environment.

A Chinese saying says “It is easier to reshape a mountain or a river than a person's character.”

Image that you are given a list of stocks of big winners (for example, stocks such as GOOG, AMZN, AAPL, etc. a year ago), and you are only allowed to buy from the list. You would be a market genius.

Another Chinese saying says” Surround yourself with good people; you can become a better person.”(近朱者赤 近墨者黑 )

By the same token, I think the following is true and easier to achieve

“Surround yourself with good stocks; you would become a better trader.”

The diamondwise charts can be used to judge a stock to be a good or bad stock in objective and unbiased way, because its support and resistance lines are automatically drawn based upon the behavior of the stock. My sorting and ranking method is trying to filter out bad stock, and to prevent bad stocks from entering into my watch list.

Friday, April 23, 2010

My favorite Setup

A stock may leave a “Hint” where it wants to go. A big green/white candle with higher volume is a “Hint” it wants to go up. In many cases, after a big candle, the stock may pullback for a few days, then all of sudden, it goes up again. If the pullbacks are low volume, and does not close below the big candle’s low. I still believe the stock wants to go up. If the stock close below the big candle’s low, it will then invalidate the “Hint”, stop loss may be triggered


Here is my favorite setup:
1. overall market direction is in up trend
2. the stock is in strong up trend
3. big green/white candle with higher volume (ideally in a good location of a diamond, such as breaking into upper diamond, etc.)
4. buy the stock and add on pullbacks (go long the stocks or sell put vertical spreads)
5. stop loss is just below the low of the big white candle on a close basis
Some examples:


Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 23-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: The bulls had a good day and a good week. All the dips have been bought. Our short-term signal turned bullish yesterday.  The last sell signal was a failed one. Hope you all had a good week in trading and life. Thanks for all the visits to this blog's sponsors this week. I really appreciated it, and that also gave me evan more motivation to share my research and opinions about the market. I will try to share my favarorite trading setup this weekend, stay tuned. Have a great weekend.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/23/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD489.63.02Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD10621.21.41Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD23346.60.45
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD9218.4-0.39
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD132.6-1.48Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD81.6-2.78Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves38777.41.03
Total # of DOWN Moves11322.6-0.68
Total5001000.64
Note: Again, mkt internal very bullish today




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10947 Mode will be SELL
S&P500BUY18-Feb-2010 at 1107When Daily Close Price < 1188 Mode will be SELL
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: volume lower, but no question about the trend, It may break into the upper diamond soon.

My Favorite Books