R U L E # 1Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. This is what took LTCM out. This is what took Barings Brothers out; this is what took Sumitomo Copper out, and this is what takes most losing investors out.
R U L E # 2Never, ever, under any circumstance, should one add to a losing position ... not EVER!
We trust our point is made. If "location, location, location" are the first three rules of investing in real estate, then the first two rules of trading equities, debt, commodities, currencies, and so on are these: never add to a losing position.
R U L E # 3Learn to trade like a mercenary guerrilla.
The great Jesse Livermore once said that it is not our duty to trade upon the bullish side, nor the bearish side, but upon the winning side. This is brilliance of the first order. We must indeed learn to fight/invest on the winning side, and we must be willing to change sides immediately when one side has gained the upper hand.
R U L E # 4 DON'T HOLD ON TO LOSING POSITIONSCapital is in two varieties: Mental and Real, and, of the two, the mental capital is the most important.
Holding on to losing positions costs real capital as one's account balance is depleted, but it can exhaust one's mental capital even more seriously as one holds to the losing trade, becoming more and more fearful with each passing minute, day and week, avoiding potentially profitable trades while one nurtures the losing position.
R U L E # 5 GO WHERE THE STRENGTH ISThe objective of what we are after is not to buy low and to sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher, or to sell short low and to buy lower.
We can never know what price is really "low," nor what price is really "high." We can, however, have a modest chance at knowing what the trend is and acting on that trend. We can buy higher and we can sell higher still if the trend is up. Conversely, we can sell short at low prices and we can cover at lower prices if the trend is still down. However, we've no idea how high high is, nor how low low is.
R U L E # 6Sell markets that show the greatest weakness; buy markets that show the greatest strength.
Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw our rocks into the wettest paper sack for it will break the most readily, while in bull markets we need to ride the strongest wind for it shall carry us farther than others.
R U L E # 7In a Bull Market we can only be long or neutral; in a bear market we can only be bearish or neutral.
In a bull market we can be neutral, modestly long, or aggressively long--getting into the last position after a protracted bull run into which we've added to our winning position all along the way. Conversely, in a bear market we can be neutral, modestly short, or aggressively short, but never, ever can we--or should we--be the opposite way even so slightly.
R U L E # 8"Markets can remain illogical far longer than you or I can remain solvent."
The University of Chicago "boys" have argued for decades that the markets are rational, but we in the markets every day know otherwise. We must learn to accept that irrationality, deal with it, and move on.
R U L E # 9Trading runs in cycles; some are good, some are bad, and there is nothing we can do about that other than accept it and act accordingly.
Thus, when things are going well, trade often, trade large, and try to maximize the good fortune that is being bestowed upon you. However, when trading poorly, trade infrequently, trade very small, and continue to get steadily smaller until the winds have changed and the trading "gods" have chosen to smile upon you once again.
R U L E # 10To trade/invest successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician.
It is obviously imperative that we understand the economic fundamentals that will drive a market higher or lower, but we must understand the technicals as well. When we do, then and only then can we, or should we, trade.
R U L E # 11Keep your technical systems simple.
The greatest traders/investors we've had the honor to know over the years continue to employ the simplest trading schemes. They draw simple trend lines, they see and act on simple technical signals, they react swiftly, and they attribute it to their knowledge gained over the years that complexity is the home of the young and untested.
R U L E # 12In trading/investing, an understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.
Markets are, as we like to say, the sum total of the wisdom and stupidity of all who trade in them, and they are collectively given over to the most basic components of the collective psychology. The dot-com bubble was indeed a bubble, but it grew from a small group to a larger group to the largest group, collectively fed by mass mania, until it ended. The economists among us missed the bull-run entirely, but that proves only that markets can indeed remain irrational, and that economic fundamentals may eventually hold the day but in the interim, psychology holds the moment.
And finally the most important rule of all:
R U L E # 13Do more of that which is working and do less of that which is not.
This is a simple rule in writing; this is a difficult rule to act upon. However, it synthesizes all the modest wisdom we've accumulated over thirty years of watching and trading in markets. Adding to a winning trade while cutting back on losing trades is the one true rule that holds--and it holds in life as well as in trading/investing.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
富翁、富婆所共有的15大特质 ZT
= 富翁、富婆所共有的15大特质 = ( 1 )愈罗曼蒂克的人,愈能发财 想成为富翁,一定要有非常强烈的赚钱欲望。而现实的金钱,也是用来满足个人欲望用的。罗曼蒂克的人为了实现人生的梦想,也就充满了斗志,这斗志就是激励他赚钱的最大动机。因为,只有赚大钱,才能实现他的「美梦」。 ( 2 )外型落魄的人,和钱无缘 整天愁眉苦脸者,人和金钱都不会亲近他,笑口常开的人,谈笑风生中就有了赚钱机会,这就是所谓的和气生财。人的心情难免有高潮、低潮,心情不好自然闷闷不乐,而摆出一幅落魄的样子,但没有人愿意被这种落魄相对的人感染,在敬而远之下,没有人际关系也就没了「钱途」。人生际遇无常,世事难料,挫折往往也是好运的开始,丕极泰来,想赚钱的人就一定具备化危机为转机的本事。 ( 3 )富翁大多很小气,但懂得施舍 愈有钱的人愈小气,赚过钱的人才知道赚钱的困难,但他们一定懂得适度的「施舍」,因为施舍也是赚钱的重要手段。白手起家的人,一定待已俭朴,一条毛巾可以用到破,一块香皂可以磨到完,但他知道赚钱是靠大家一起完成的,因此他绝对乐于与人分享。 ( 4 )会发财的人,一定有女人缘 想赚钱的男人,身上会散发一种说不出来的吸引力,他们充满活力、热心、勇敢、谦虚,这些也就是激励个人赚钱欲望的要件,具备这种吸引力的男人,常可让女人投怀送抱,也就是,有发财相的人,一定有女人缘。而强烈赚钱欲望的人,一定天天充满干劲,抬头挺胸、勇往直前且虚怀若谷,待人客气、谦虚有礼,这种人一定受女性欢迎。 ( 5 )成为富翁靠胆识,成为富婆靠魅力 男性和女性致富的方式不太一样,男性赚钱靠的是勤奋工作,充满活力,勇于冒险。当今社会型态则是讲究公关、人际关系、女性温柔、体贴、亮丽的特质反而比男性更易开拓事业,更易发财致富,商场上不存在男女真情,很多舞厅、酒廊的女经理,就非常懂得这种道理,周旋于男客人中赚大钱。 ( 6 )不满现状的人,才能成为富翁 如果你已习惯朝九晚五的上班族生活,整天上班、下班,日复一日,任凭岁月消逝,你一定成不了富翁。一个会积极想要赚钱的人,绝不以温饱为已足,一定想要让生活多彩多姿,天天充满赚钱的活力,具备了这个要件,再冷、再热的天气,再苦、再累的工作,你才会心甘情愿的去做,而当你养成了这个赚钱「习惯」后,财富自然愈来愈多。 ( 7 )充分享受性爱的人,才能赚大钱 不管年纪多大,能够充分享受性爱的人,就表示他身体健康、充满活力、有一颗年轻的心,并且勇于应付挑战,这些正是赚大钱的先决条件。中国谚语也说:「马行无力皆因瘦,人不风流都因贫」。反过来说,风流而不下流的人,都是积极追求财富的人。 ( 8 )天天唠叨抱怨的人,易被穷神找上门 天天唠叨抱怨,不是不满现状,而是失意、落魄、拒人于千里之外,这种人失掉了人生的斗志,也最易被穷神找上门。如果你仔细观察,亿万富翁只要一开口一定说吉祥话,而且能够开朗的和他谈笑,而给人良好的印象和亲切的问候别人,正是赚钱的秘诀。赚钱,也需要营造一种气势,如果你不能很有精神的和人讲话,不能让客户觉得舒适,就没办法赚到别人的钱。 ( 9 ) 寒门出富翁,穷怕了就愈想发财 社会上的大富翁,出身背景常两极化,不是继承祖业的企业家第二代,就是从小苦哈哈白手起家的创业者,而后者的能力和累积财富的持久力大多优于前者。这也就说明了,一个生长在贫穷家庭的小孩子,因为穷怕了,也想发财,因为饿怕了,所以有着比一般人更强烈的赚钱欲望。 ( 10 )脑筋太好,往往赚不了大钱 照理说,愈聪明、愈会读书的人,应该最会赚钱,事实上,当今网络新贵也的确是高级知识分子,然而这些知识经济富豪只是全部富翁的一小部分。有智慧、有道德的人往往囿于理论,不善计谋,他们的「智慧」,反而成为赚钱的障碍。赚钱不能光靠理论,一定要亲自实践,不要在知识的象牙塔里做白日梦,不要死爱面子嫌铜臭,如此,行行都能出状元。 ( 11 )百年修得同船渡,有缘才有钱赚 不管是同船共渡、同搭飞机,还是一起等公车,短暂的相遇都是难得的缘份,这个缘份也是赚钱的良机。想发财的人,不仅对有缘人要懂得珍惜,对有缘的事业也要乐于接受,由于产业有景气强弱之分,也唯有能抓住时代变动的人,才能抓住钱潮,快速累积财富,成为人人羡慕的大富翁。 ( 12 )想赚钱一定要动,要发财不要害羞 一般人想要赚钱,也一定要勤于「动」,不管你是一个小业务员或是修车技术工人,平常勤于与人「互动」,让人际关系活跃起来,赚钱的机会自然较多,赚了钱之后的投资理财行为也一样,投资是「动」 , 储蓄是「静」,如果只是储蓄,所赚利息常被通货膨胀吃光光,是积不了财的,在动的过程中,要特别记住不要害羞,不要怕没面子,你要大胆的、乐观的试试看,这尝试的过程,不仅让你体会人生百态,也让你体悟赚钱的方法。 ( 13 )不会追女朋友的人,赚不了钱 想赚钱,一定要有非常强烈的赚钱欲望,这和追女朋友一样,首先一定先有「真美!真想拥有她 … 」的强烈欲望,才会激励自己展开行动。追女朋友不能怕碰钉子,一定要厚着脸皮试试看,成功了就拥有幸福,一个怕失败,机会来临却不敢尝试,没有挑战心的人,财富和女人永远和他擦身而过。 ( 14 )赚钱是无中生有,想办法做个暴发户 花钱真容易,千金散去只弹指间,赚钱可真是不容易,比生孩子还困难,孕妇生孩子是有(肚里有)中生有,赚钱是无中生有。白手起家的富翁一定是个暴发户,否则不可能快速累积那么多钱的,从这个角度来说,富翁就等于暴发户,只要不为非作歹,不伤天害理,你想当富翁,就不必介意过程,不要顾虑到虚无的面子,否则钱是不会跟你走的。 ( 15 )富翁都充满自信心和好奇心 如果你一点自信都没有,总觉得长的太矮、体重太胖、口才不好、肌肉不结实、年纪太大,甚至「那活儿太小」,那么你永远也追不到心爱的女友。赚钱也一样,想要致富,不仅要充满自信,更要充满好奇心,好奇是人类生活进步的原动力,是一种创造力也是一种魄力,有了这种魄力就会去做投资、冒险,而这种行为正是致富的主因之一。
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