Friday, April 30, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 30-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: OK, my SDS saved me today. What a week. I was surprised by the Tuesday and Thursday' move, but today's move was not a big surprise to me. The Tuesday's  big sold off gave me a hint that mkt was on shaky ground.

Anyway, I hope you had a great week. This blog's traffic increases over last couple of weeks thanks to your support. I hope information in this blog is helpful to you.

I will post weekly Industry group rankings starting this weekend. Thank you, TSF, for the links of industry groups. Wendel, I hope you are doing good these days.

Have a great weekend, and come back for the industry group rankings this weekend. Thank you !
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/30/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD61.22.22Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD122.41.43Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD459.020.42
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD16032.06-0.56
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD18637.27-1.43Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD9018.04-2.87Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves6312.630.78
Total # of DOWN Moves43687.37-1.41
Total499100-1.13
Note: 90 stocks down over 2STD.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: I am still very bullish as long as SPY stays within the yellow diamond for long term. Only for Short term I am on bears side.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $FSLR, $GMCR

FSLR -big up day
GMCR -big down day


Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 29-APR-2010




Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: I don't know what to say about this market tonight. The rule I know is that never argue with the market, and "Price is the information". I don't know what the mkt will do tomorrow.
Just two days ago, the mkt sold off like no tomorrow, but today everyone wants in, all buyers, no sellers in the market, that's why the market goes up.
If you have BIDU, FSLR, you feel good; If you have GMCR, you get your ass kicked.
What I feel is like one twitter says "...feel like one legged man in ass kicking contest", because I sold/stopped out  my longs on Tuesday. I bought some SDS today, stop will be the market at new high with convincing volume. As long as bears are still leading, I will give SDS some chance.
"Being wrong is OK, stay with wrong is what makes traders failed"
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/29/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD6713.43.14Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD16633.21.45Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD18436.80.56
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD5911.8-0.41
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD71.4-1.35Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD173.4-3.81Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves41783.41.33
Total # of DOWN Moves8316.6-1.18
Total5001000.91
Note: 417 out of 500 went up today, very strong internals.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: SP500 still need about close above 10 points to change the mode.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY almost take back all the loss, let's see if it can take back the new high, and stay there. 

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Industry Group Rankings

This is ranking based on Jeff Augen's price change behavior model.
I added Gold group into Tom's list, Gold is top industry group based on 5 days.
Shoes group is top 1 based on 250 days.

I don't know why Tom did not even put Gold into his industry group list, aslo missing is Casinos group, etc. so I will have to come up my own industry group list.

If anyone is willing to share his/her industry group list in Excel file, I would apprecaite it.
I would like to have in Column A, the industry name, and Column B, its components symbos sperated by comma. If you have this kind of excel file, and willing to share it. That would be great.




Price Behavior Model Rankings on 4/28/10
Based on 250 DaysBased on 120 DaysBased on 20 DaysBased on 5 Days
Shoe
RetailBuildingSupply
RetailBuildingSupply
Gold
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Aerospace/Defense
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Homebuilding
Apparel
Shoe
Gold
Machinery
LongETFs
LongETFs
Machinery
PrecisionInstrument
Insurance(Life)
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Apparel
ShortETFs
DiversifiedCo.
AirTransport
Shoe
NaturalGas(Diversified)
Aerospace/Defense
RetailStore
Retail(SpecialLines)
Chemical(Basic)
RetailStore
Homebuilding
Homebuilding
Chemical(Specialty)
PrecisionInstrument
PrecisionInstrument
CementandAggregates
CementandAggregates
RetailBuildingSupply
Insurance(Life)
Chemical(Basic)
Toiletries/Cosmetics








Price Behavior Model Rankings on 4/27/10
Based on 250 DaysBased on 120 DaysBased on 20 DaysBased on 5 Days
Shoe
RetailBuildingSupply
RetailBuildingSupply
Homebuilding
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Shoe
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Machinery
Apparel
Aerospace/Defense
Shoe
Furn/HomeFurnishings
LongETFs
Furn/HomeFurnishings
Machinery
Gold
Insurance(Life)
LongETFs
Apparel
CementandAggregates
Aerospace/Defense
AirTransport
Retail(SpecialLines)
Retail(SpecialLines)
DiversifiedCo.
RetailStore
CementandAggregates
Shoe
RetailStore
Homebuilding
Chemical(Basic)
ShortETFs
RetailBuildingSupply
Insurance(Life)
PrecisionInstrument
Aerospace/Defense
PrecisionInstrument
Retail(SpecialLines)
Homebuilding
Apparel

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $BIDU, $GOOG, $JST, $GDX

BIDU (UP=8; DN=7) vs. GOOG(UP=-2, DN=-2); GOOG leaves china was a bad decision

JST, this chinese stock is breaking down from support

GDX breaks up the downtrend line, thus DN=1;

(If you don;t know what is UP and DN, please read "Spatial Sorting-Part II".)



Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 28-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Congrats to BIDU holders, it went up to around $710 ah. I believe that "selling volatility before earnings" is a pure gamble play. The market bounced back a little after massive sell-off yesterday. I am not convinced yet the sell off is over, even though dip buyings worked every time for the last few months. However, I don't think the market will go straight down from here either. I believe mkt will be in range bound for the near term.

I will post BIDU and GOOG diamondwise charts, and industry group ranking based on price behavior model tonight.

Thanks for visiting, and good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/28/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD275.42.89Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD8416.81.33Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD24348.60.44
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD11923.8-0.39
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD183.6-1.31Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD91.8-3.64Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves35470.80.84
Total # of DOWN Moves14629.2-0.7
Total5001000.39
Note: Shorts covering and dip buying helped the bulls today.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY range bound (stay within the current dimand)  for the near term?

Reply to TSF's comments on "Spatial Sorting Part II"

TSF, here are the diamondwise charts for JNY on 3/02/2010, UP=2, DN=1, great time to buy, just breaks downtrend line as indicated by DN=1;

Another one is on 11/03/2009, DN=-1, it start a small downtrend afterwards.

Hope that helps. Thanks for your comments.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $QQQQ, $IWM


Spatial Sorting-Part III

This post is after Part I and Part II


Type II Industry Group Ranking



Type II Spatial Sorting on 4/27/2010
1Precision InstrumentBMI, BEC, CKP, CGNX, DHR, ESL, NEWP, PLXS, TMO, WAT
2HomebuildingBZH, BHS, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MHO, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, ITB
3Retail (Special Lines)ACMR, ANN, BBBY, BBY, BBW, CBK, CONN, GME, HGG, HOTT, JCG, JAS, MW, PETS, ROST, WSM
4MachineryCMCO, CMI, CW, DOV, FLOW, FLS, GGG, HURC, IEX
5Retail Building SupplyBECN, BLDR, FAST, HD, IBI, LOW, LL, TSCO, WSO
6ApparelANF, AEO, CACH, CHS, COH, CWTR, DBRN, GPS, GES, HBI, JNY, JOSB, LTD, LIZ, NWY, OXM, RL, SMRT, TLB, VFC
7Chemical (Basic)ASH, CE, CF, DOW, DD, FMC, GGC, OLN, SMG, SHW, WLK
8Insurance (Prop/Casualty)ALL, AIG, ACGL, AXS, CB, CINF, CNA, RE, HIG, L, PRE, PGR, TRV, WRB
9Insurance (Life)AEL, AGO, DFG, FFG, GNW, LNC, MET, PLFE, PL, PRU, SFG, UAM
10Cement and AggregatesCX, CRH, EXP, MLM, TXI, VMC
11Petroleum (Integrated)CVX, COP, XOM, FTO, HOC, MRO, MUR, SUN, TSO, VLO, IYE, IEO, IGE, PXE, XLE
12Retail StoreBIG, COST, DDS, FDO, JCP, KSS, M, JWN, SKS, TGT, TJX, TUES, WMT, IYC
13Diversified Co.MMM, CR, FO, GY, GE, HSC, ROK, SXI, TFX, TXT, UTX
14ShoeBWS, CROX, DECK, ICON, KSWS, KCP, NKE, SKX, TBL, WWW
15Long ETFsBGU, TNA, DDM, IHF, IAT, TUR, QLD, PKB, PEJ, QQQQ, SSO
16Human ResourcesASF, AHS, ADP, CDI, CCRN, HEW, HHGP, KELYA, MAN, ASGN, RHI, VOL
17Natural Gas (Distributor)CLNE, CPNO, EP, EOG, LG, NJR, GAS, NSH, SWX, UGI, WGL, WMB
18Computers and PeripheralsAAPL, ARUN, CSCO, DELL, EFII, EMC, EMR, ELX, BGC, IN, LXK, NTAP, ZBRA
19Aerospace/DefenseBA, FLIR, GD, GR, HON, LMT, NOC, RTN, COL, ITA, PPA
20Telecom. EquipmentADCT, ADTN, ARRS, CBEY, CIEN, CTV, CMTL, GLW, DTV, HLIT, HRS, INFN, JDSU, MOT, NTGR, PWAV, QCOM, SONS, TLAB
21Trucking/Transp. LeasingABFS, CGI, CNW, FWRD, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, SAIA, WERN, YRCW
22Packaging and ContainerATR, AVY, BLL, BMS, CCK, PKG, PTV, SEE, SLGN
23Metal FabricatingBOOM, ITW, KMT, LDSH, LAWS, MLI, PCP, SHAW, TKR, TIE, VMI
24Furn/Home FurnishingsAYI, BSET, ETH, FBN, HNI, IFSIA, KBALB, LZB, LEG, MLHR, ZZ, SCS, TPX
25InternetAMZN, ATHR, ELNK, EBAY, FFIV, GOOG, JCOM, PCLN, RNWK, STMP, TZOO, UNTD, VRSN, YHOO
26Securities BrokerageETFC, GS, IBKR, MS, RJF, SCHW, AMTD, IAI
27Air TransportALK, AMR, CAL, EXPD, FDX, JBLU, LUV, UPS
28Chemical (Diversified)ACET, APD, ALB, BRC, CBT, EMN, MIL, MON, MOS, POT, PPG, PX, SIAL, TRA
29Building MaterialsAMWD, APOG, AWI, FRD, GFF, HAYN, HW, IIIN, LXU, MAS, MEA, NCS, NGA, NWPX, TREX, USG, XLB
30Electric Utility (West)BKH, EIX, HE, IDA, TEG, PCG, PNW, POR, XEL
31Household ProductsBTH, CHD, CLX, CL, KMB, NWL, NUS, PG, IYK, XLP
32Investment Co. (Domestic)DBA, PJB, PHO, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLK
33Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentBJS, CPX, DO, DRQ, ESV, GLBL, GLF, MTRX, NBR, NOV, NE, PTEN, PDC, RDC, RES, SLB, SII, SE, RIG, IEZ, PXJ
34Toiletries/CosmeticsACV, AVP, BARE, RDEN, EL, IPAR, PARL, FACE, RGS
35Semiconductor Cap Equip.AMAT, BRKS, ISIL, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, MTSN, NVLS, RMBS, SMTC, TER, VSEA, XLNX
36Electric Utility (Central)AEE, AEP, CNP, CNL, DPL, DTE, EDE, GXP, MGEE, NI, OGE, IDU, XLU
37SemiconductorAEIS, AMD, ANAD, CREE, CY, FORM, IDTI, INTC, IRF, LSI, WFR, MU, NSM, NVDA, QLGC, RFMD, TXN, IGW
38Chemical (Specialty)AGU, ARG, CRDN, FOE, NEU, PKE, POL, KWR, SHLM, TG, ZEP
39Insurance (Diversified)AFL, AON, AIZ, CNO, PICO, PFG, TMK, UNM, XL
40Petroleum (Producing)APC, APA, ATW, CXG, CLR, FST, HP, HERO, NBL, OXY, PDE, UDRL, XTO, UGA, USO
41Medical SuppliesABAX, ABT, ACL, BAX, BIO, XRAY, HSIC, HOLX, ISRG, IVC, JNJ, MDT, MWIV, OMI, PMTI, PDCO, PSSI, STJ, SRDX, IHI
42CoalACI, ICO, JRCC, MEE, PCX, BTU
43BiotechnologyAGN, ABC, AMGN, AMLN, ANIK, BIIB, BMRN, CELG, CRL, DNDN, GILD, HGSI, ILMN, JAZZ, LIFE, MNKD, MDVN, MIPI, MYGN, OSIP, PDLI, SVNT, SOMX, TECH, VRTX, VVUS, IBB, PBE
44Electric Utility (East)AES, CV, CHG, ED, D, DUK, EXC, FE, FPL, NST, PGN, PEG, SO, TE, UIL
45Investment Co. (Foreign)FXI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, MXI
46Natural Gas (Diversified)AGL, ATO, COG, DVN, EGN, EQT, NFG, NFX, OKE, STR, SUG, SWN, UNG
47Food ProcessingADM, BG, CALM, CPB, CQB, CAG, FDP, GIS, HSY, HNZ, K, KFT, LANC, SLE
48Metals and Mining (Div.)AA, CENX, WIRE, FCX, HL, KALU, RTI, SCCO, SLT, SWC, IYM, SLV, GLD
49DrugALKS, BMY, CEPH, HITK, IDXX, INCY, LLY, MRK, MYL, PFE, TEVA, IHE, PJP, XLV
50Alternate EnergyAMSC, HEV, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, FCEL, SOLF, SPWRA, STP, ULBI, YGE
51Short ETFsBGZ, TZA, DOG, DXD, PSQ, QID, SH, SDS, SMN, SZK, SCC, SKF, SIJ, DUG, SRS, SSG, REW, SDP


Type I Spatial Sorting on 4/27/2010
1ShoeBWS, CROX, DECK, ICON, KSWS, KCP, NKE, SKX, TBL, WWW
2Aerospace/DefenseBA, FLIR, GD, GR, HON, LMT, NOC, RTN, COL, ITA, PPA
3Retail StoreBIG, COST, DDS, FDO, JCP, KSS, M, JWN, SKS, TGT, TJX, TUES, WMT, IYC
4Long ETFsBGU, TNA, DDM, IHF, IAT, TUR, QLD, PKB, PEJ, QQQQ, SSO
5Household ProductsBTH, CHD, CLX, CL, KMB, NWL, NUS, PG, IYK, XLP
6Electric Utility (West)BKH, EIX, HE, IDA, TEG, PCG, PNW, POR, XEL
7Computers and PeripheralsAAPL, ARUN, CSCO, DELL, EFII, EMC, EMR, ELX, BGC, IN, LXK, NTAP, ZBRA
8Furn/Home FurnishingsAYI, BSET, ETH, FBN, HNI, IFSIA, KBALB, LZB, LEG, MLHR, ZZ, SCS, TPX
9Precision InstrumentBMI, BEC, CKP, CGNX, DHR, ESL, NEWP, PLXS, TMO, WAT
10Trucking/Transp. LeasingABFS, CGI, CNW, FWRD, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, SAIA, WERN, YRCW
11Retail (Special Lines)ACMR, ANN, BBBY, BBY, BBW, CBK, CONN, GME, HGG, HOTT, JCG, JAS, MW, PETS, ROST, WSM
12CoalACI, ICO, JRCC, MEE, PCX, BTU
13Metal FabricatingBOOM, ITW, KMT, LDSH, LAWS, MLI, PCP, SHAW, TKR, TIE, VMI
14Chemical (Specialty)AGU, ARG, CRDN, FOE, NEU, PKE, POL, KWR, SHLM, TG, ZEP
15InternetAMZN, ATHR, ELNK, EBAY, FFIV, GOOG, JCOM, PCLN, RNWK, STMP, TZOO, UNTD, VRSN, YHOO
16Natural Gas (Diversified)AGL, ATO, COG, DVN, EGN, EQT, NFG, NFX, OKE, STR, SUG, SWN, UNG
17Investment Co. (Domestic)DBA, PJB, PHO, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLK
18Packaging and ContainerATR, AVY, BLL, BMS, CCK, PKG, PTV, SEE, SLGN
19Diversified Co.MMM, CR, FO, GY, GE, HSC, ROK, SXI, TFX, TXT, UTX
20Chemical (Diversified)ACET, APD, ALB, BRC, CBT, EMN, MIL, MON, MOS, POT, PPG, PX, SIAL, TRA
21Retail Building SupplyBECN, BLDR, FAST, HD, IBI, LOW, LL, TSCO, WSO
22Semiconductor Cap Equip.AMAT, BRKS, ISIL, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, MTSN, NVLS, RMBS, SMTC, TER, VSEA, XLNX
23Electric Utility (Central)AEE, AEP, CNP, CNL, DPL, DTE, EDE, GXP, MGEE, NI, OGE, IDU, XLU
24SemiconductorAEIS, AMD, ANAD, CREE, CY, FORM, IDTI, INTC, IRF, LSI, WFR, MU, NSM, NVDA, QLGC, RFMD, TXN, IGW
25Insurance (Diversified)AFL, AON, AIZ, CNO, PICO, PFG, TMK, UNM, XL
26DrugALKS, BMY, CEPH, HITK, IDXX, INCY, LLY, MRK, MYL, PFE, TEVA, IHE, PJP, XLV
27Chemical (Basic)ASH, CE, CF, DOW, DD, FMC, GGC, OLN, SMG, SHW, WLK
28Metals and Mining (Div.)AA, CENX, WIRE, FCX, HL, KALU, RTI, SCCO, SLT, SWC, IYM, SLV, GLD
29Investment Co. (Foreign)FXI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, MXI
30ApparelANF, AEO, CACH, CHS, COH, CWTR, DBRN, GPS, GES, HBI, JNY, JOSB, LTD, LIZ, NWY, OXM, RL, SMRT, TLB, VFC
31Air TransportALK, AMR, CAL, EXPD, FDX, JBLU, LUV, UPS
32Toiletries/CosmeticsACV, AVP, BARE, RDEN, EL, IPAR, PARL, FACE, RGS
33Petroleum (Producing)APC, APA, ATW, CXG, CLR, FST, HP, HERO, NBL, OXY, PDE, UDRL, XTO, UGA, USO
34Medical SuppliesABAX, ABT, ACL, BAX, BIO, XRAY, HSIC, HOLX, ISRG, IVC, JNJ, MDT, MWIV, OMI, PMTI, PDCO, PSSI, STJ, SRDX, IHI
35Electric Utility (East)AES, CV, CHG, ED, D, DUK, EXC, FE, FPL, NST, PGN, PEG, SO, TE, UIL
36MachineryCMCO, CMI, CW, DOV, FLOW, FLS, GGG, HURC, IEX
37Telecom. EquipmentADCT, ADTN, ARRS, CBEY, CIEN, CTV, CMTL, GLW, DTV, HLIT, HRS, INFN, JDSU, MOT, NTGR, PWAV, QCOM, SONS, TLAB
38Oilfield Svcs/EquipmentBJS, CPX, DO, DRQ, ESV, GLBL, GLF, MTRX, NBR, NOV, NE, PTEN, PDC, RDC, RES, SLB, SII, SE, RIG, IEZ, PXJ
39Building MaterialsAMWD, APOG, AWI, FRD, GFF, HAYN, HW, IIIN, LXU, MAS, MEA, NCS, NGA, NWPX, TREX, USG, XLB
40Natural Gas (Distributor)CLNE, CPNO, EP, EOG, LG, NJR, GAS, NSH, SWX, UGI, WGL, WMB
41BiotechnologyAGN, ABC, AMGN, AMLN, ANIK, BIIB, BMRN, CELG, CRL, DNDN, GILD, HGSI, ILMN, JAZZ, LIFE, MNKD, MDVN, MIPI, MYGN, OSIP, PDLI, SVNT, SOMX, TECH, VRTX, VVUS, IBB, PBE
42Food ProcessingADM, BG, CALM, CPB, CQB, CAG, FDP, GIS, HSY, HNZ, K, KFT, LANC, SLE
43Insurance (Life)AEL, AGO, DFG, FFG, GNW, LNC, MET, PLFE, PL, PRU, SFG, UAM
44Human ResourcesASF, AHS, ADP, CDI, CCRN, HEW, HHGP, KELYA, MAN, ASGN, RHI, VOL
45Insurance (Prop/Casualty)ALL, AIG, ACGL, AXS, CB, CINF, CNA, RE, HIG, L, PRE, PGR, TRV, WRB
46Short ETFsBGZ, TZA, DOG, DXD, PSQ, QID, SH, SDS, SMN, SZK, SCC, SKF, SIJ, DUG, SRS, SSG, REW, SDP
47Alternate EnergyAMSC, HEV, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, FCEL, SOLF, SPWRA, STP, ULBI, YGE
48Petroleum (Integrated)CVX, COP, XOM, FTO, HOC, MRO, MUR, SUN, TSO, VLO, IYE, IEO, IGE, PXE, XLE
49Securities BrokerageETFC, GS, IBKR, MS, RJF, SCHW, AMTD, IAI
50Cement and AggregatesCX, CRH, EXP, MLM, TXI, VMC
51HomebuildingBZH, BHS, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MHO, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, ITB

I will post the rankings for the past ??? days this weekend, I will also post the industry group ranking based on Jeff Augen's behavior model.

Like Tom said, I believe that only buy stocks from strong industry groups will do very good for long run.

 
 



Type I Industry Group Ranking:

Spatial Sorting-Part II

In case you missed it, here is part I of Spatial Sorting.


The diamonds in the chart are made from the crossing of up slope lines and down slope lines.

There are two ways we can rank the location of a diamond

(1) Type I Ranking: The distance to the critical up trend line (the more above the up trend line, the higher the ranking).

(2) Type II Ranking: The distance to the critical down trend line (The more above the down trend line, the higher the ranking)


Compare JNY and SBUX below: For JNY, the distance to up trend line is 3 (UP=3, 3 is normalized number, no unit), and the distance to down trend line is 6 (DN=6). For SBUX, UP=4, DN=5. So for Type I ranking , SBUX is higher, while for Type II ranking, JNY is higher. Since the market has been in uptrend past year, so the Type I ranking is long term ranking, and Type II is more or less intermediate term.

 

 
 
I will use Thomas N. Bulkowski’s industry group as a starting point. (I may modify the components in each industry group in the future).


Tom publishes the ranking based on 6 month relative strength in his website. Tom has also an intensive study about how to use the ranking.

Tom states “If you buy all of the stocks in the industry ranked 1 for performance and hold them until the rank fell below 14 (and sell them), you would have made an average of 28.1% from 1/1/1995 to 11/9/2007. The S&P 500 index, over the same hold time, gained an average of just 2.3%. There were 114 trades made during that period.”

The Type II ranking on 4/27/2010 is shown below:

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 27-APR-2010




Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Wow, What a day, I really hope you came out OK today. I personally took big losses today. The market goes down because there are more willing sellers than buyers. Volume is huge, and another bad news is our intermediate term SP500 turned into SELL mode today.

I will post the industry group ranking based on spatial sorting later tonight.

Be careful, and be cautious if you are still long. Control your risk, and Good Lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/27/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD20.44.18Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD30.61.62Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD163.20.27
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD6112.2-0.6
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD19238.4-1.56Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD22645.2-2.99Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves214.20.84
Total # of DOWN Moves47995.8-2.11
Total500100-1.99
Note: 226 stocks down over 2STD !!!. The market may bounce tomorrow, but the technical damage is just too big today.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: SP500 turned into sell mode today, it needs go up to 1215 to become buy mode.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: The bears may be happy today, but the long term chart is still very healthy, now I believe we will stay within the yellow diamond for next month.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $JNY, $DPS, $MEA, $RFMD

Will watch on these on pullbacks if any.
JNY
DPS
MEA
RFMD



Spatial Sorting-Part 1

It is my belief that if you only associate yourself with good and strong stocks, you can become a much better trader.


The question is now how do we generate a list of good stocks or ETFs by filtering, or sorting, or ranking so that we can buy from. By monitoring the ranking changes, we may also find the trend changes among the stocks (sectors, or industry groups)

I have been using the following ranking methods:

(1) The relative strength ranking: ranking by the percentage change in a certain period.
This is what most people do.

(2) I used the ranking by the Jeff Augen’s behavior model. This is trying to “normalize” the percentage changes, and making the comparison between stocks more “fair”.

(3) The “Spatial Sorting” is the subject of this post. It is based upon the “Spatial location” in the diamondwise chart. The location of the current diamond the stock is residing determines the sorting order. The more upper diamond the stock resides, the higher the ranking.


The reason I don’t like to use the relative strength ranking is that it does not consider the chart pattern. For example, consider stock MCD and JPM, as of today (4/26/2010), the one year return for both JPM and MCD are very close to 31%. But if you look at the charts below, which chart is better?




The current diamond the MCD resides is higher than the diamond the JPM resides. In the relative strength ranking, both are same, but in our “Spatial Sorting”, the MCD is ranked much higher than JPM.


Here is the top 5 “Spatial Sorting” from Dow 30 stocks for the last 20 days. If I have to buy stocks from DOW 30 stocks, I would buy these 5 stocks.


I will apply this sorting method to Sectors and Industry Groups tomorrow. Meanwhile, Please send me any suggestions and comments. Thank you.

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 26-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: The market seems tired, but I am still a bull. Low volume pullback is healthy. I would only worry if there is any high volume sell off in the next few days.

I am almost done with "Sector Spatial Sorting", I will start posting on it in the next few days.

Thank you, TSF, for your very encouraging comment and great suggestions on Sector Analysis yesterday.  TSF says in comments"...You are an excellent market watcher and you have an excellent blog. May I suggest that you build on your own strengths and the strengths of your blog, which can be summarized as LESS IS MORE...K.I.S.S. Keep it smart and simple". Thank you!
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/26/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD512.95Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD3061.38Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD15831.60.41
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD21342.6-0.5
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD7114.2-1.39Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD234.6-2.53Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves19338.60.62
Total # of DOWN Moves30761.4-0.86
Total500100-0.29
Note: The bears have upper hand today in market internal.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10947 Mode will be SELL
S&P500BUY18-Feb-2010 at 1107When Daily Close Price < 1188 Mode will be SELL
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: I hope the SPY will follow my arrows shown; the black arrow will enter the upper diamond. We shall wait and see.

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