Showing posts with label Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market. Show all posts

Monday, May 17, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 17-MAY-2010





Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25Signal History
Comments: One way to win a game in sports is to prevent your opponent to gain more points, but you have to gain points by doing some offense. The bulls did some defense today. Let's see if the bulls have any offensive game in the next few days. I am not going long here, just saying today's price action is a positive step for the bulls. The bears are still under control. I am waiting for the buy signal.

I also include the NASDAQ100 system in the above picture. Over the weekend, the responses to the Bulls vs Bears Excel-based Tool exceed my expectation. The Excel Tool allows you setup your own list to track the bulls and bears scores. 

Over the time, I developed 3 kinds of tools to help me to navigate the market


(1) Market direction tool (such as Bulls vs Bears Scoring system).

(2) DiamondWise charts, or “Charts with auto-drawn trend lines”. To be unbiased and rational, I want the computer to draw trend lines for me, so that I can make unbiased decision. Regular readers know the diamondwise charts I publish everday.
(3) Sorting and Ranking Tool. I publish weekly rankings of ETFs and Industry Groups. The idea is to filter out bad stocks and associate myself with winners. I believe this is an easier way to become a better trader.

You have inspired me. I will try my best to make the (2) and (3) available in Excel as soon as I can.
Thank you.

Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/17/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD30.63.18Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD346.811.25Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD27855.710.36
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD16633.27-0.31
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD173.41-1.16Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD10.2-2.26Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves31563.130.48
Total # of DOWN Moves18436.87-0.4
Total4991000.16
Note: great finish today for the bulls, they push 315 stocks up.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: Like I said, the bulls need push the SPY back into the diamond to scare the bears.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 14-MAY-2010




Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25Signal History
Comments: Well, Trying to get in a little early costed me money this week. I went into last weekend very bearish. However,the huge run up on Monday changed my mind. My own system told me it was still the bears in control, but I still went some longs, luckily I have only very limited longs, so the captial damage is small, but my mental captial damage by not following my own system bothered me a lot. Now I try to wait patiently for my next buy signal.

Hope all is well. Have a great weekend.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/14/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD0.0Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD0.0Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD122.40.14
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD31763.53-0.63
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD15831.66-1.26Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD122.4-2.79Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves122.40.14
Total # of DOWN Moves48797.6-0.88
Total499100-0.86
Note: with indice down that much, only 12 down over 2std.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: My range bound theory is proven wrong. The SPY drops out the diamond today. The last Friday low is last defense for the bulls. If that line is broken, I will get out  the market completely.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 13-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25Signal History
Comments: I have some bullish positions (mainly sold put verticals), but I am not particular concerns yet. The bears score did not go up today. I don't think the market will go straight up either. My trading is based upon my assumption that mkt will be in range bound. I also may short call verticals.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/13/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD20.42.09Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD511.41Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD5611.220.31
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD36172.34-0.5
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD7114.23-1.28Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD40.8-2.38Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves6312.630.45
Total # of DOWN Moves43687.37-0.65
Total499100-0.51
Note: 436 downs, but only 4 down over 2std.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: the SPY is still in strong uptrend channel. My mkt view is that SPY will stay within the diamond, i.e., range bound.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 12-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25Signal History
Comments: wow, only one position (a touchdown and 2 point conversion) to tie the game now. The leading team (the bears) start to have concerns. The volume is light, but I am so impressed by the price action. Do I go out all buying now?, NO. I only bought a few longs (XRT, CTRP to name a few) as of today. I totally missed this move up.

Another not so good news, I just received email from Google saying my adsense account has been disabled, that means no more ads in this blog, and all my ad clicks earnings are gone also. The email says my account has invalid clicks, I don't click ads myself, so it must come from my loyal readers. Don't feel bad if you clicked ads in my blog. Instead I thank you for what you did for me. You want me to have some rewards for my time and efforts. I don't feel like to fight with Google, but I am very much upset about their decision. I think it is time for me to get my own website (my own domain). I will keep you posted if I decide to move to other place.


Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/12/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD512.77Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD12224.451.31Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD33366.730.57
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD367.21-0.28
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD20.4-1.33Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD10.2-2.54Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves46092.180.79
Total # of DOWN Moves397.82-0.39
Total4991000.7
Note: 460 ups day. very strong internals, only problem is the volume.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: Like I said yesterday, If the SPy can stay above the trendline a few more days, the bears will be scared.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 11-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Gold and Silver had a golden day today, as evidenced by my yesterday's pick in daily diamondwise charts: GDX and BVN. The overall mkt is still nervous. It is not best condition for swings.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/11/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD40.82.83Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD122.41.22Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD19839.680.28
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD25951.9-0.36
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD244.81-1.33Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD20.4-2.73Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves21442.890.38
Total # of DOWN Moves28557.11-0.46
Total499100-0.1
Note: I call it even today, because after yesterday's monster move, pullback is expected.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: If the bulls can keep SPY within the diamond for a few more days and volume picks up, the bears may become nervous. If not, the bears will get more aggressive again.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 10-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: wow, massive short covering or dip buying?, the bulls don't care. This market is so news driven. I don't believe all the troubled news is over, but I may add some longs, because I am only 5% long. The stop will be today's low on close basis.
Good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/10/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD35771.542.87Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD10721.441.6Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD244.810.46
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD61.2-0.63
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD30.6-1.35Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD20.4-11.18Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves48897.82.47
Total # of DOWN Moves112.2-2.74
Total4991002.36
Note: 357 stocks over 2std, the highest number ever since I track this data.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY jumped back into the yellow diamond. Good first step.

Friday, May 7, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 7-MAY2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments:

wow, what a week for the bears. Bulls make money; bears make money;
The market is in bad shape right now. It will take some for the market to recover.

I think it is good time for me to do the bulls vs bears plot in 2008/09, which I promised my loyal readers to do some time ago. People are comparing this time to Oct. 2008 mkt drops, and I believe my loyal readers want to see how our system did at that time. I will publish the plot on Saturday morning.

Again, thanks for the supports this week, and I wish all the mothers a best mother's day on coming Sunday. Hug your moms if you could, and have a great weekend !
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/7/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD0.0Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD71.41.51Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD469.220.28
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD21843.69-0.57
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD18136.27-1.41Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD479.42-2.51Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves5310.620.44
Total # of DOWN Moves44689.38-1.12
Total499100-0.95
Note: Still lots of sellers in the market.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: Still in uptrend for the long terms.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 6-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: The bears score made a new high today. But in the time like this, throw out all technical analysis, because it is useless. I was planning to buy something when the bears over done their thing (i.e., its score over 40), I will not do it in this kind of market. Cash is a position in this kind of market. The bulls are wounded, the dip buyers are scared and hurt, and the bears are more confident and aggressive, and I don't know who will genuinely go out and buy stocks other than daytraders for short-term bounce. It will take a while for people to want to own stocks again.
Hope all is OK, and best wishes in your trading. Protect your capital should be #1 priority.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/6/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD20.43.1Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD511.45Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD81.60.23
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD6212.42-0.74
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD22845.69-1.55Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD19438.88-2.86Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves153.011.02
Total # of DOWN Moves48496.99-1.97
Total499100-1.88
Note: The technical damage is big for the bulls, also the psychological damage.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: Today's data even distorted the diamonds in the plot.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 5-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: 38 to 18 as of today. If I have to guess, I would say mkt rebounds in the next day or so, then may go down again. Depends on how much down and its volume, the market will give us a hint where she wants to go.

I draw 3 lines of defense for the bulls in SPY plot (see the end of this post). Today, the 1st line of defense did a good job. If failed, 2nd line of defense, then 3rd.

Thank you and Good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/5/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD512.23Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD214.211.3Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD13026.050.38
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD25250.5-0.48
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD7314.63-1.35Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD183.61-2.62Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves15631.260.57
Total # of DOWN Moves34368.74-0.78
Total499100-0.36
Note: 343 downs, but could be much worse.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: My 3 lines of defense for the bulls.

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 4-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: I always assume that the market would sell off hard when the bears are leading in the scores.
When the bears scores reach over 40, I will start to selectively buy.
Hope all is OK today. Good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/4/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD20.42.87Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD40.81.35Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD132.610.19
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD9719.44-0.71
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD24048.1-1.48Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD14328.66-2.56Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves193.810.72
Total # of DOWN Moves48096.19-1.65
Total499100-1.56
Note: Bears come out in force today.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
Comments: The Intermediate term signal are all in SELL mode. Somehow the North Finance(FOREX dealer) stop supporting the indices data a few days ago, and my intermediate trend signal was obtained from an algorithm running in North Finance using MT4 platform. So unless the North Finance starts to support the indices data again, I will not be able to report the intermediate term trend signals in the future. Sorry about that.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments:  Long term it is still within the strong diamond.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 3-MAY-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: If you are windering why the bulls' scores only gained 1 point, it is because the volume is low.  I don't know how the indices can go up that much with such low volume.
Anyway, if you are a day trader, you are probably enjoying the volatility; if you are a swing trader, you are being whipsawed. Here is the whipsaw song by the famous Ed Seykota you may want to listen.
WhipSaw song
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 5/3/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD408.022.41Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD18436.871.39Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD20440.880.52
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD5811.62-0.29
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD112.2-1.37Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD20.4-2.4Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves42885.771.07
Total # of DOWN Moves7114.23-0.52
Total4991000.85
Note: Bulls had a great day; again dip buying works, amazing.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY stays within the yellow diamond. The market is in range bound.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 30-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: OK, my SDS saved me today. What a week. I was surprised by the Tuesday and Thursday' move, but today's move was not a big surprise to me. The Tuesday's  big sold off gave me a hint that mkt was on shaky ground.

Anyway, I hope you had a great week. This blog's traffic increases over last couple of weeks thanks to your support. I hope information in this blog is helpful to you.

I will post weekly Industry group rankings starting this weekend. Thank you, TSF, for the links of industry groups. Wendel, I hope you are doing good these days.

Have a great weekend, and come back for the industry group rankings this weekend. Thank you !
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/30/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD61.22.22Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD122.41.43Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD459.020.42
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD16032.06-0.56
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD18637.27-1.43Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD9018.04-2.87Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves6312.630.78
Total # of DOWN Moves43687.37-1.41
Total499100-1.13
Note: 90 stocks down over 2STD.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: I am still very bullish as long as SPY stays within the yellow diamond for long term. Only for Short term I am on bears side.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 29-APR-2010




Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: I don't know what to say about this market tonight. The rule I know is that never argue with the market, and "Price is the information". I don't know what the mkt will do tomorrow.
Just two days ago, the mkt sold off like no tomorrow, but today everyone wants in, all buyers, no sellers in the market, that's why the market goes up.
If you have BIDU, FSLR, you feel good; If you have GMCR, you get your ass kicked.
What I feel is like one twitter says "...feel like one legged man in ass kicking contest", because I sold/stopped out  my longs on Tuesday. I bought some SDS today, stop will be the market at new high with convincing volume. As long as bears are still leading, I will give SDS some chance.
"Being wrong is OK, stay with wrong is what makes traders failed"
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/29/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD6713.43.14Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD16633.21.45Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD18436.80.56
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD5911.8-0.41
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD71.4-1.35Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD173.4-3.81Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves41783.41.33
Total # of DOWN Moves8316.6-1.18
Total5001000.91
Note: 417 out of 500 went up today, very strong internals.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: SP500 still need about close above 10 points to change the mode.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY almost take back all the loss, let's see if it can take back the new high, and stay there. 

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 28-APR-2010



Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System

Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Congrats to BIDU holders, it went up to around $710 ah. I believe that "selling volatility before earnings" is a pure gamble play. The market bounced back a little after massive sell-off yesterday. I am not convinced yet the sell off is over, even though dip buyings worked every time for the last few months. However, I don't think the market will go straight down from here either. I believe mkt will be in range bound for the near term.

I will post BIDU and GOOG diamondwise charts, and industry group ranking based on price behavior model tonight.

Thanks for visiting, and good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/28/2010
Type of Daily Move# of StocksPercent of all stocksAvg MoveSymbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD275.42.89Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD8416.81.33Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD24348.60.44
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD11923.8-0.39
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD183.6-1.31Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD91.8-3.64Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves35470.80.84
Total # of DOWN Moves14629.2-0.7
Total5001000.39
Note: Shorts covering and dip buying helped the bulls today.




How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEXCurrent ModeSignal Date and PriceMode Change Price
DOWBUY17-Feb-2010 at 10309When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500SELL27-APR-2010 at 1183When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQBUY19-Feb-2010 at 2243When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY

Comments: SPY range bound (stay within the current dimand)  for the near term?

My Favorite Books