Volatility crush saved my trade on $CF

I wanted to give a quick note before I leave for East Lansing tonight.
I sold 95/90 put vertical on CF yesterday (selling puts meaning I was bullish on CF), but today it gapped down big on a news. However, I did not lose money on CF, instead I made money on CF. The volatility crush helped me today. The implied volatility of CF drops to a very low level. Option sometimes makes you money EVEN when you are wrong. If you want to learn options, the books by Jeff Augen are very good. Jeff Augen was also an engineer.  Support this website if you want to buy the book thru the link. Thanks.

FSLR JeffAugen Plot

Below is the JeffAugen Plot for FSLR. Over the last 200 days, there were 4 upside spikes (on average of 2.72 STD), while there were 8 downside spikes over 2 STD (on average of 3.31 STD). That tells us there are more downside surprises and upside surprises, and the size of downside move were higher too. So for FSLR, if you planned to play iron condor for the earnings play, you got be careful with downside surprise. Refer to Note.

PCLN Jeff Augen model: don't use Iron Condor for earnings play

Many options experts like to play earnings event by selling iron condor, because they knew the volatility will be crushed after the earnings annoucement. A few days ago, I wrote a Note about Jeff Augen's way to look past years price behavior to see how many big spikes in positive side and negative side. Below is a plot for PCLN,

You can clearly see PCLN experienced 2 big spikes (almost over 8 STD, yes, it is 8 STD) over last 200 days, when you saw that picture, you would never sell iron condor yesterday. Today PCLN moved up 4.47 STD. If you sold iron condor option yesterday, you would lose badly today. Next time before you use iron condor to play earnings, make sure you check the JeffAugen plot.

Just for fun, the plot below shows price along with the vertical lines of down over 2 STD days: