How I use Jeff Augen Chart

The BullsBears Execl has a sheet for AugenChart. I got some emails asking me how I use it.

The Augen Chart is to find “extreme” movers (moves over 2STD). These extreme movers are excellent hints to tell you which direction the stock will take.

Generally speaking, when a stock experiences a green mover, it is a strong signal indicates it wants to move even higher. When an uptrending stock experience a 2STD move down, it may indicate the trend change from up to down. However, a move over 2STD may also be an “exhaustion” move.

Below is an example for AMZN.

I use Augen Chart as a check if the stock is safe to go long or not. If the LATEST big move is a red mover(move down over 2STD), I would be very concerned if I have long position in that stock.

If the latest mover is a green mover, or if the latest bar is red, however the stock is higher than the highest red point (i.e., the stock completely recovered from red mover), then I would feel OK to go long.


The NFLX’s 4 latest movers are all green.

The QQQQ chart tells us the market does not have any red movers since September.

CREE’s latest mover is RED, until it recovers the highest point of red bar, going long here is a concern to me.

I own NVLS, as the latest mover is green:

I make decision to go long or short primary based upon on chart patterns, but I use the Augen Chart as a final check.

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/26/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AA	7	3.14	3	-3.01
ABC	9	2.55	2	-2.20
ABT	8	2.65	4	-2.57
AET	9	2.60	3	-2.49
BA	10	2.76	3	-2.54
BBBY	12	2.81	2	-2.20
BDK	12	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	9	3.50	2	-2.46
BLL	8	2.93	4	-2.67
BRK.B	9	3.45	3	-3.08
CAT	10	2.99	3	-2.26
CBS	6	3.26	3	-2.34
CELG	7	4.99	2	-2.72
CMA	5	2.97	2	-2.91
CMI	8	2.78	4	-2.75
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.53
CSX	7	2.99	3	-2.89
CTSH	8	3.26	4	-2.59
CVH	10	3.18	5	-2.49
DE	10	2.44	4	-2.33
DIS	10	2.46	4	-2.34
EBAY	11	2.87	4	-2.48
EK	13	3.28	4	-2.28
EL	10	3.28	5	-2.41
EQR	9	2.37	3	-2.32
ESRX	7	3.14	3	-2.86
ETN	7	3.03	2	-2.35
F	14	2.64	2	-2.29
FAST	9	3.46	2	-2.73
FDO	9	6.00	4	-4.02
FDX	5	3.18	2	-3.08
GIS	9	3.16	4	-2.88
GPC	8	3.20	3	-2.82
GPS	5	3.74	2	-2.33
HAS	7	3.30	3	-2.87
HCBK	7	2.69	3	-2.41
HRL	8	3.25	3	-2.43
HUM	11	2.76	5	-2.65
ISRG	8	4.64	3	-2.37
JWN	7	2.99	3	-2.23
KEY	10	2.31	3	-2.19
KMB	7	3.65	2	-2.37
LEN	11	2.94	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.01	3	-2.21
LTD	7	3.36	3	-2.55
M	10	2.45	3	-2.31
MAR	7	3.57	3	-2.44
MCK	4	4.01	2	-3.68
MIL	11	4.00	5	-2.44
MJN	6	3.52	3	-2.36
MMC	10	2.85	5	-2.60
NKE	7	3.61	3	-2.78
NOVL	9	4.20	3	-2.81
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PDCO	8	2.81	2	-2.43
PEP	9	2.86	4	-2.47
PH	10	2.61	3	-2.12
PHM	9	2.83	1	-2.07
PTV	8	2.72	3	-2.47
Q	11	2.40	4	-2.16
QLGC	7	4.10	3	-2.25
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
RSH	8	3.99	3	-3.10
S	10	3.00	3	-2.82
SE	7	2.78	3	-2.44
SHLD	8	3.18	4	-2.93
SRCL	7	3.00	3	-2.76
SWK	9	2.95	3	-2.22
TGT	7	2.69	3	-2.61
TIF	9	2.94	4	-2.91
TLAB	6	4.35	3	-2.93
TSO	9	2.71	4	-2.36
UNH	8	2.55	3	-2.54
UPS	9	3.26	2	-2.55
URBN	9	2.37	4	-2.31
WFC	6	2.53	3	-2.36
WPI	8	3.31	4	-2.43
WPO	9	2.86	3	-2.26
WYN	8	3.14	1	-2.00
WYNN	8	3.00	3	-2.79
ZION	7	3.14	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/26/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	3	2.42	9	-2.85
CME	4	2.45	10	-2.84
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.61
FE	2	2.28	7	-2.73
FISV	3	2.09	7	-2.98
HES	2	2.33	8	-2.39
KLAC	3	2.51	10	-2.51
MCHP	3	2.34	9	-2.62
MUR	3	2.28	8	-2.43
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.50
OXY	3	2.14	7	-2.48
PCAR	2	2.43	7	-2.70
PEG	3	2.40	7	-2.54
PLD	3	2.17	7	-2.34
PPL	2	2.62	7	-3.68
PX	3	2.13	9	-2.49
SIAL	4	2.30	9	-2.53
TAP	2	3.49	6	-4.01
TMK	3	2.36	7	-2.68
XL	2	2.60	6	-2.62

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/19/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AA	7	3.16	3	-3.01
AET	9	2.62	3	-2.49
BA	10	2.75	3	-2.52
BBBY	12	2.82	2	-2.20
BDK	12	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	9	3.52	2	-2.47
BLL	6	3.15	3	-2.87
CAT	8	2.99	4	-2.21
CBS	7	3.26	3	-2.32
CELG	7	5.02	2	-2.72
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.57
CSCO	6	3.34	3	-2.46
CTSH	8	3.25	4	-2.59
CVH	10	3.18	5	-2.49
DIS	10	2.46	4	-2.34
DV	6	5.82	2	-2.80
EBAY	11	2.87	4	-2.48
EK	13	3.28	4	-2.44
EQR	8	2.40	3	-2.30
ESRX	7	3.16	3	-2.78
ETN	8	3.08	3	-2.27
F	13	2.66	2	-2.29
FAST	8	3.45	2	-2.73
FDO	9	6.08	4	-4.04
FDX	5	3.17	2	-3.13
FLS	7	2.67	3	-2.39
GIS	11	3.07	2	-2.66
GPC	7	3.23	3	-3.05
HAS	7	3.33	3	-2.82
HOT	9	2.63	2	-2.49
HRL	9	3.19	3	-2.61
HUM	11	2.76	5	-2.65
ISRG	8	4.65	4	-2.28
JWN	9	2.83	3	-2.17
KEY	12	2.33	3	-2.18
LEN	10	3.00	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.06	4	-2.17
LTD	8	3.40	3	-2.46
M	8	2.53	2	-2.46
MAS	6	2.80	3	-2.26
MIL	11	4.00	5	-2.21
MJN	6	3.66	3	-2.36
MMC	10	2.86	5	-2.51
NKE	7	3.58	3	-2.80
NOVL	10	3.98	3	-2.74
NYT	10	3.34	3	-2.91
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PDCO	8	2.78	2	-2.43
PEP	9	2.80	4	-2.56
PH	10	2.83	2	-2.08
PHM	9	2.87	1	-2.07
PTV	8	2.74	3	-2.47
Q	9	2.47	4	-2.30
QLGC	8	3.75	3	-2.25
RDC	8	2.39	3	-2.35
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
S	10	2.98	3	-2.82
SBUX	9	3.36	4	-2.52
SE	8	2.76	3	-2.41
SJM	10	3.34	5	-2.33
SNI	8	2.96	4	-2.74
SRCL	8	2.88	2	-2.42
STI	6	2.37	3	-2.21
SWK	10	2.95	3	-2.14
SYK	9	2.84	4	-2.52
TJX	8	2.70	4	-2.58
TLAB	7	4.06	2	-3.25
TSO	8	2.89	4	-2.74
UNH	8	2.56	3	-2.54
UPS	9	3.23	3	-2.41
URBN	8	2.43	4	-2.31
VLO	8	3.14	4	-3.00
WEC	6	2.45	3	-2.39
WHR	8	2.94	3	-2.88
WPI	8	3.22	4	-2.43
WPO	10	2.86	4	-2.28
WYN	8	3.15	2	-2.02
WYNN	7	2.85	3	-2.79
ZION	7	3.14	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/19/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	4	2.57	9	-2.86
CME	4	2.49	11	-2.76
DO	3	2.18	8	-2.57
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.68
FSLR	4	2.72	9	-3.26
HES	4	2.39	9	-2.57
MCHP	4	2.44	9	-2.61
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.51
PCAR	2	2.43	7	-2.70
PLD	3	2.19	7	-2.34
PPL	3	2.53	7	-3.59
PX	3	2.14	9	-2.39
RSG	3	2.52	7	-2.94
SIAL	4	2.30	9	-2.59
TAP	2	3.49	6	-4.00
XL	2	2.60	5	-2.62

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/12/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AA	6	3.06	3	-3.01
AET	8	2.60	3	-2.49
BA	11	2.76	3	-2.52
BBBY	12	2.83	2	-2.20
BDK	12	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	9	3.52	2	-2.47
BLL	7	3.17	3	-2.87
CAT	8	2.99	4	-2.21
CBS	7	3.26	3	-2.32
CELG	6	5.36	2	-2.72
CI	5	2.83	2	-2.65
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.57
CSCO	7	3.25	3	-2.46
CTSH	9	3.14	4	-2.59
DIS	10	2.46	4	-2.34
DTV	8	2.64	3	-2.60
DV	6	5.82	2	-2.80
EBAY	11	2.87	4	-2.48
EK	12	3.38	4	-2.44
EQR	7	2.34	3	-2.30
ESRX	7	3.16	3	-2.78
ETN	8	3.08	3	-2.27
F	12	2.68	2	-2.29
FAST	8	3.34	2	-2.73
FDO	9	6.08	4	-4.04
FLS	8	2.61	3	-2.39
GD	6	2.64	3	-2.34
GIS	11	3.07	3	-2.54
GPC	8	3.10	3	-3.05
HAS	8	3.19	3	-2.82
HOT	9	2.63	2	-2.49
HRL	9	3.19	3	-2.61
HUM	10	2.80	5	-2.65
ISRG	10	4.19	4	-2.28
JWN	9	2.83	3	-2.17
KEY	12	2.33	3	-2.18
KG	10	2.52	5	-2.30
LEN	9	3.09	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.06	4	-2.17
LTD	7	3.16	3	-2.46
M	8	2.53	2	-2.46
MAS	6	2.80	2	-2.29
MCK	4	4.04	2	-3.68
MIL	11	4.00	5	-2.21
MJN	6	3.66	3	-2.36
MMC	10	2.86	5	-2.51
NKE	6	2.98	3	-2.80
NOVL	10	3.98	4	-2.70
NYT	10	3.34	3	-2.91
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PDCO	8	2.78	2	-2.43
PH	10	2.83	2	-2.08
PHM	9	2.87	1	-2.07
PTV	8	2.74	3	-2.47
Q	8	2.50	4	-2.30
QLGC	7	3.94	3	-2.25
RDC	8	2.39	3	-2.35
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
ROST	9	2.53	3	-2.48
S	10	2.98	3	-2.82
SBUX	8	3.39	4	-2.52
SE	8	2.76	3	-2.41
SHLD	9	3.00	4	-2.87
SJM	10	3.34	5	-2.33
SNI	8	2.96	4	-2.74
SRCL	8	2.88	2	-2.42
STI	6	2.37	3	-2.21
SWK	10	2.95	3	-2.14
SYK	8	2.93	4	-2.52
TGT	8	2.67	4	-2.53
TJX	8	2.70	4	-2.58
TLAB	7	4.06	2	-3.25
TSO	8	2.89	4	-2.74
UNH	8	2.56	3	-2.54
UPS	8	3.22	3	-2.41
URBN	9	2.46	4	-2.31
VLO	8	3.14	4	-3.00
WEC	7	2.44	3	-2.39
WHR	7	3.04	2	-2.75
WPI	8	3.22	3	-2.15
WPO	10	2.86	4	-2.28
WYN	8	3.15	1	-2.03
WYNN	6	2.90	3	-2.79
ZION	7	3.14	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/12/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	4	2.57	9	-2.86
CME	4	2.49	11	-2.76
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.68
FSLR	4	2.72	9	-3.26
MCHP	4	2.44	9	-2.61
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.51
PPL	3	2.53	7	-3.59
PX	2	2.14	9	-2.39
RSG	3	2.52	7	-2.94
SIAL	4	2.30	9	-2.59
TAP	2	3.49	6	-4.00

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/05/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AA	6	3.06	3	-3.01
ABT	8	2.64	2	-2.55
ADM	7	3.02	3	-2.57
AET	7	2.66	3	-2.49
AN	8	2.69	4	-2.50
BA	10	2.81	3	-2.52
BBBY	11	2.90	2	-2.20
BDK	12	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	10	3.40	3	-2.44
BLL	7	3.17	3	-2.87
CAT	8	2.99	4	-2.21
CBS	7	3.26	3	-2.32
CELG	6	5.36	2	-2.72
CI	5	2.83	2	-2.65
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.57
CSCO	6	3.09	3	-2.46
CTSH	9	3.14	4	-2.59
DIS	10	2.46	4	-2.34
DTV	8	2.64	4	-2.50
DV	6	5.82	2	-2.80
EBAY	11	2.87	4	-2.48
EK	12	3.38	4	-2.44
EQR	7	2.34	3	-2.30
ESRX	7	3.16	3	-2.78
ETN	7	3.20	3	-2.27
F	12	2.68	2	-2.29
FAST	9	3.22	2	-2.73
FDO	9	6.08	4	-4.04
FLS	8	2.61	3	-2.39
GD	6	2.64	3	-2.34
GIS	11	3.07	3	-2.54
GPC	9	3.07	3	-3.05
HAS	8	3.19	3	-2.82
HOT	9	2.63	2	-2.49
HRL	9	3.19	3	-2.61
HUM	10	2.80	5	-2.65
ISRG	10	4.19	4	-2.28
JWN	9	2.80	3	-2.17
KEY	10	2.38	3	-2.18
KG	10	2.52	5	-2.30
LEN	9	3.09	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.06	4	-2.17
LTD	7	3.16	3	-2.46
M	8	2.53	2	-2.46
MAS	6	2.80	2	-2.29
MCK	4	4.04	2	-3.68
MIL	11	4.00	5	-2.21
MJN	6	3.66	3	-2.36
MMC	10	2.86	5	-2.51
NKE	6	2.98	3	-2.80
NOVL	10	3.98	4	-2.70
NSC	6	2.95	2	-2.72
NTAP	10	2.50	5	-2.38
NYT	10	3.34	3	-2.91
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PH	10	2.83	2	-2.08
PHM	9	2.87	1	-2.07
PTV	8	2.74	3	-2.47
Q	8	2.50	4	-2.30
QLGC	7	3.96	3	-2.25
RDC	8	2.39	3	-2.35
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
ROST	10	2.71	3	-2.48
S	9	3.09	3	-2.82
SE	8	2.76	3	-2.41
SHLD	10	2.99	4	-2.87
SJM	10	3.34	5	-2.33
SNI	8	2.96	4	-2.74
SRCL	8	2.88	2	-2.42
STI	6	2.37	3	-2.21
SWK	10	2.95	3	-2.14
SYK	8	2.93	4	-2.52
TGT	8	2.67	4	-2.53
TJX	8	2.70	4	-2.58
TLAB	6	4.36	2	-3.25
UNH	8	2.56	3	-2.54
UPS	7	3.15	3	-2.41
URBN	9	2.46	4	-2.31
WEC	7	2.44	3	-2.39
WHR	7	3.04	2	-2.75
WPI	8	3.22	4	-2.13
WPO	10	2.86	4	-2.28
WYN	8	3.15	1	-2.03
WYNN	6	2.90	3	-2.79
ZION	6	3.17	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 03/05/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	4	2.57	9	-2.86
CME	4	2.49	11	-2.76
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.68
FSLR	4	2.72	9	-3.26
GME	3	2.61	8	-4.65
MCHP	3	2.34	9	-2.61
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.51
PX	2	2.14	9	-2.39
RSG	3	2.52	7	-2.94
TAP	2	3.49	6	-4.00

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

How to Read This Table

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 02/26/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
ABT	8	2.64	2	-2.55
ADM	8	2.93	3	-2.57
AET	7	2.66	3	-2.49
AN	8	2.69	4	-2.50
BA	9	2.88	3	-2.52
BBBY	12	2.83	3	-2.15
BDK	11	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	9	3.48	3	-2.44
BLL	7	3.17	3	-2.87
CAT	8	2.99	4	-2.21
CBS	7	3.26	3	-2.32
CELG	5	6.02	2	-2.72
CI	5	2.83	2	-2.65
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.57
CSCO	7	2.95	3	-2.46
CTSH	8	3.23	4	-2.59
DIS	9	2.47	4	-2.34
DTV	8	2.64	4	-2.50
DV	6	5.82	2	-2.80
EBAY	10	2.92	4	-2.48
EK	12	3.38	4	-2.44
ESRX	7	3.16	3	-2.78
ETN	7	3.20	3	-2.27
F	11	2.70	2	-2.29
FAST	9	3.22	3	-2.58
FDO	9	5.44	4	-4.04
FLS	8	2.61	3	-2.39
GD	6	2.64	3	-2.34
GIS	11	3.07	3	-2.54
GPC	9	3.07	3	-3.05
HAS	8	3.19	3	-2.82
HOT	8	2.54	2	-2.49
HRL	10	3.09	3	-2.61
HUM	10	2.80	5	-2.65
ISRG	9	4.40	4	-2.28
JWN	9	2.80	4	-2.15
KEY	10	2.38	3	-2.18
KG	10	2.52	5	-2.30
KMB	9	3.04	3	-2.87
LEN	9	3.09	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.06	4	-2.17
LTD	7	3.16	3	-2.46
M	7	2.60	2	-2.46
MAS	6	2.80	2	-2.29
MCK	4	4.04	2	-3.68
MIL	10	4.16	5	-2.21
NKE	6	2.98	3	-2.80
NOVL	9	2.92	4	-2.70
NSC	6	2.95	2	-2.72
NYT	9	3.41	3	-2.91
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PH	10	2.83	2	-2.08
PHM	9	2.87	1	-2.07
PTV	8	2.74	3	-2.47
Q	8	2.50	4	-2.30
QLGC	7	3.96	3	-2.25
RDC	7	2.42	3	-2.35
RHT	8	3.42	4	-2.87
RL	8	3.02	3	-2.91
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
ROST	9	2.70	3	-2.48
S	9	3.09	3	-2.82
SE	8	2.76	3	-2.41
SHLD	10	2.99	4	-2.87
SJM	10	3.34	5	-2.33
SNI	8	2.96	4	-2.74
SRCL	8	2.88	2	-2.42
STI	6	2.37	3	-2.21
SWK	9	2.94	3	-2.14
SYK	8	2.93	4	-2.52
TGT	8	2.67	4	-2.53
TJX	8	2.70	4	-2.58
TLAB	7	4.05	2	-3.25
UNH	8	2.56	3	-2.54
UPS	7	3.15	3	-2.41
URBN	9	2.46	4	-2.31
WEC	7	2.44	3	-2.39
WHR	7	3.04	2	-2.75
WPI	8	3.22	4	-2.13
WPO	8	3.01	4	-2.28
WYN	8	3.15	1	-2.03
WYNN	6	2.90	3	-2.79
ZION	6	3.17	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 02/26/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	4	2.57	10	-2.81
BMC	3	2.80	7	-3.13
CME	4	2.49	11	-2.76
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.68
FSLR	4	2.72	9	-3.26
GME	3	2.61	8	-4.65
KIM	2	2.24	5	-2.35
MCHP	3	2.34	9	-2.61
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.51
PX	1	2.23	9	-2.39
RSG	3	2.52	7	-2.94
SIAL	4	2.28	9	-2.59
TAP	2	3.49	6	-4.00

Stocks consistently have spikes over the last 200 days

After I posted a note about Jeff Augen' study about stock price change behavior. I thought it is a good idea to have a list of stocks that consistently have UPside or DOWNside spikes (over 2 STD) over last 200 days.

Spike means that the stock moved up or down over 2 STD that day.

To make into the consistently have more UPside spikes list, a stock must:

• have at least 2 times more upside spikes (over 2 STD) than downside spikes
• the average upside spikes in terms of STD must be larger than the average of downside spikes

The opposite of the above will make a stock into the consistently have more DOWNside spikes list.

The big spikes usually occurred after an event ( event could be earnings annoucement, upgrade/downgrade, etc).  I'd like to check this list when an event is coming. For example, when FSLR was about to annouce earnings two days ago, I bet FSLR had more chance to have downside spike because FSLR was in the consistently have more downside spike list.
If the stock is in consistently upside spikes list, I will bet that after the event, there is more probability to have upside surprise after the event. Nobody can predict the future, I can only bet the side with more probabilty.

This list is generated from S&P 500 stocks and it will be updated weekly.

Stocks consistently have more UPside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 02/19/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
ABT	9	2.57	2	-2.55
ADM	8	2.93	4	-2.53
AET	8	2.73	3	-2.49
AN	8	2.69	4	-2.50
BA	9	2.88	3	-2.52
BBBY	12	2.83	3	-2.15
BDK	11	3.28	2	-2.11
BIG	8	3.56	3	-2.44
BLL	7	3.17	3	-2.87
BNI	8	3.97	4	-3.11
CAT	8	2.99	4	-2.21
CBS	7	3.26	3	-2.32
CELG	6	5.47	2	-2.72
CI	6	2.86	3	-2.54
COST	8	2.89	4	-2.57
CSCO	7	2.95	3	-2.46
CTSH	8	3.23	4	-2.59
DIS	10	2.61	4	-2.34
DTV	8	2.64	4	-2.50
DV	6	5.82	2	-2.80
EBAY	10	2.92	4	-2.48
EK	12	3.38	4	-2.44
ETN	7	3.20	3	-2.27
F	11	2.70	3	-2.59
FAST	9	3.22	3	-2.58
FLS	8	2.61	3	-2.39
GD	6	2.64	3	-2.34
GIS	13	3.04	3	-2.54
GPC	9	3.07	3	-3.05
HAS	8	3.19	3	-2.82
HOT	8	2.54	2	-2.49
HRB	9	2.73	4	-2.34
HRL	10	3.09	3	-2.61
ISRG	9	4.40	4	-2.28
JWN	9	2.80	4	-2.15
KEY	9	2.39	3	-2.18
KG	10	2.52	4	-2.37
KMB	10	2.96	3	-2.87
LEN	9	3.09	1	-2.30
LIFE	8	3.06	4	-2.17
LTD	8	3.07	4	-2.37
M	6	2.46	2	-2.46
MAS	6	2.80	2	-2.29
MIL	10	3.02	5	-2.21
MJN	6	3.65	3	-2.36
NKE	6	2.98	3	-2.80
NOVL	10	2.91	4	-2.70
NSC	6	2.95	2	-2.72
NYT	9	3.41	3	-2.91
PBG	10	3.63	5	-2.43
PH	10	2.83	2	-2.08
PHM	9	2.87	1	-2.07
PNC	8	2.74	4	-2.73
PTV	7	2.73	3	-2.47
Q	9	2.85	4	-2.30
QLGC	7	3.96	3	-2.25
RDC	7	2.42	3	-2.35
RHT	8	3.42	4	-2.87
RL	8	3.02	3	-2.91
ROK	10	2.73	5	-2.55
ROST	8	2.79	3	-2.48
S	9	3.09	3	-2.82
SE	8	2.76	3	-2.41
SHLD	10	2.99	4	-2.87
SJM	11	3.35	4	-2.40
SNI	9	2.94	4	-2.74
SRCL	9	2.87	2	-2.42
STI	6	2.37	3	-2.21
SWK	9	2.94	3	-2.14
SYK	9	2.83	4	-2.52
TGT	8	2.67	4	-2.53
THC	6	2.71	3	-2.35
TLAB	7	4.05	2	-3.25
UNH	9	2.63	3	-2.54
UPS	8	3.04	3	-2.41
URBN	9	2.46	4	-2.31
WHR	7	3.04	2	-2.75
WPI	8	3.22	4	-2.13
WYN	8	3.15	1	-2.03
WYNN	6	2.90	3	-2.79
XTO	9	3.30	4	-2.49
ZION	8	2.98	3	-2.49

Stocks consistently have more DOWNside spikes over last 200 days; Generated on 02/19/2010

Symbol	# of Upside Spikes	Avg Upside Move(in STD)	# of Downside Spikes	Avg Downside Move(in STD)
AEE	4	2.57	10	-2.81
BMC	3	2.80	7	-3.13
CME	4	2.49	11	-2.76
FCX	3	2.36	7	-2.68
FSLR	4	2.72	9	-3.26
GME	3	2.61	7	-4.68
KIM	2	2.24	5	-2.35
MCHP	3	2.34	10	-2.58
NDAQ	2	2.17	9	-2.51
PCS	5	2.88	11	-3.29
PX	2	2.23	9	-2.39
RSG	3	2.52	7	-2.94
SIAL	4	2.28	9	-2.59

FSLR JeffAugen Plot

Below is the JeffAugen Plot for FSLR. Over the last 200 days, there were 4 upside spikes (on average of 2.72 STD), while there were 8 downside spikes over 2 STD (on average of 3.31 STD). That tells us there are more downside surprises and upside surprises, and the size of downside move were higher too. So for FSLR, if you planned to play iron condor for the earnings play, you got be careful with downside surprise. Refer to Note.

PCLN Jeff Augen model: don't use Iron Condor for earnings play

Many options experts like to play earnings event by selling iron condor, because they knew the volatility will be crushed after the earnings annoucement. A few days ago, I wrote a Note about Jeff Augen's way to look past years price behavior to see how many big spikes in positive side and negative side. Below is a plot for PCLN,

You can clearly see PCLN experienced 2 big spikes (almost over 8 STD, yes, it is 8 STD) over last 200 days, when you saw that picture, you would never sell iron condor yesterday. Today PCLN moved up 4.47 STD. If you sold iron condor option yesterday, you would lose badly today. Next time before you use iron condor to play earnings, make sure you check the JeffAugen plot.

Just for fun, the plot below shows price along with the vertical lines of down over 2 STD days: