Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 30-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: OK, my SDS saved me today. What a week. I was surprised by the Tuesday and Thursday' move, but today's move was not a big surprise to me. The Tuesday's  big sold off gave me a hint that mkt was on shaky ground. Anyway, I hope you had a great week. This blog's traffic increases over last couple of weeks thanks to your support. I hope information in this blog is helpful to you. I will post weekly Industry group rankings starting this weekend. Thank you, TSF, for the links of industry groups. Wendel, I hope you are doing good these days. Have a great weekend, and come back for the industry group rankings this weekend. Thank you !
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/30/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	6	1.2	2.22	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	12	2.4	1.43	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	45	9.02	0.42
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	160	32.06	-0.56
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	186	37.27	-1.43	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	90	18.04	-2.87	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	63	12.63	0.78
Total # of DOWN Moves	436	87.37	-1.41
Total	499	100	-1.13
Note: 90 stocks down over 2STD.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	SELL	27-APR-2010 at 1183	When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: I am still very bullish as long as SPY stays within the yellow diamond for long term. Only for Short term I am on bears side.

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $FSLR, $GMCR

FSLR -big up day
GMCR -big down day

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 29-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: I don't know what to say about this market tonight. The rule I know is that never argue with the market, and "Price is the information". I don't know what the mkt will do tomorrow. Just two days ago, the mkt sold off like no tomorrow, but today everyone wants in, all buyers, no sellers in the market, that's why the market goes up. If you have BIDU, FSLR, you feel good; If you have GMCR, you get your ass kicked. What I feel is like one twitter says "...feel like one legged man in ass kicking contest", because I sold/stopped out  my longs on Tuesday. I bought some SDS today, stop will be the market at new high with convincing volume. As long as bears are still leading, I will give SDS some chance. "Being wrong is OK, stay with wrong is what makes traders failed"
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/29/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	67	13.4	3.14	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	166	33.2	1.45	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	184	36.8	0.56
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	59	11.8	-0.41
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	7	1.4	-1.35	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	17	3.4	-3.81	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	417	83.4	1.33
Total # of DOWN Moves	83	16.6	-1.18
Total	500	100	0.91
Note: 417 out of 500 went up today, very strong internals.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	SELL	27-APR-2010 at 1183	When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: SP500 still need about close above 10 points to change the mode.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: SPY almost take back all the loss, let's see if it can take back the new high, and stay there.

Industry Group Rankings

This is ranking based on Jeff Augen's price change behavior model.
I added Gold group into Tom's list, Gold is top industry group based on 5 days.
Shoes group is top 1 based on 250 days.

I don't know why Tom did not even put Gold into his industry group list, aslo missing is Casinos group, etc. so I will have to come up my own industry group list.

If anyone is willing to share his/her industry group list in Excel file, I would apprecaite it.
I would like to have in Column A, the industry name, and Column B, its components symbos sperated by comma. If you have this kind of excel file, and willing to share it. That would be great.

Price Behavior Model Rankings on 4/28/10
Based on 250 Days		Based on 120 Days		Based on 20 Days		Based on 5 Days
Shoe		RetailBuildingSupply		RetailBuildingSupply		Gold
Furn/HomeFurnishings		Aerospace/Defense		Furn/HomeFurnishings		Homebuilding
Apparel		Shoe		Gold		Machinery
LongETFs		LongETFs		Machinery		PrecisionInstrument
Insurance(Life)		Furn/HomeFurnishings		Apparel		ShortETFs
DiversifiedCo.		AirTransport		Shoe		NaturalGas(Diversified)
Aerospace/Defense		RetailStore		Retail(SpecialLines)		Chemical(Basic)
RetailStore		Homebuilding		Homebuilding		Chemical(Specialty)
PrecisionInstrument		PrecisionInstrument		CementandAggregates		CementandAggregates
RetailBuildingSupply		Insurance(Life)		Chemical(Basic)		Toiletries/Cosmetics
Price Behavior Model Rankings on 4/27/10
Based on 250 Days		Based on 120 Days		Based on 20 Days		Based on 5 Days
Shoe		RetailBuildingSupply		RetailBuildingSupply		Homebuilding
Furn/HomeFurnishings		Shoe		Furn/HomeFurnishings		Machinery
Apparel		Aerospace/Defense		Shoe		Furn/HomeFurnishings
LongETFs		Furn/HomeFurnishings		Machinery		Gold
Insurance(Life)		LongETFs		Apparel		CementandAggregates
Aerospace/Defense		AirTransport		Retail(SpecialLines)		Retail(SpecialLines)
DiversifiedCo.		RetailStore		CementandAggregates		Shoe
RetailStore		Homebuilding		Chemical(Basic)		ShortETFs
RetailBuildingSupply		Insurance(Life)		PrecisionInstrument		Aerospace/Defense
PrecisionInstrument		Retail(SpecialLines)		Homebuilding		Apparel

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $BIDU, $GOOG, $JST, $GDX

BIDU (UP=8; DN=7) vs. GOOG(UP=-2, DN=-2); GOOG leaves china was a bad decision

JST, this chinese stock is breaking down from support

GDX breaks up the downtrend line, thus DN=1;

(If you don;t know what is UP and DN, please read "Spatial Sorting-Part II".)

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 28-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Congrats to BIDU holders, it went up to around $710 ah. I believe that "selling volatility before earnings" is a pure gamble play. The market bounced back a little after massive sell-off yesterday. I am not convinced yet the sell off is over, even though dip buyings worked every time for the last few months. However, I don't think the market will go straight down from here either. I believe mkt will be in range bound for the near term. I will post BIDU and GOOG diamondwise charts, and industry group ranking based on price behavior model tonight. Thanks for visiting, and good lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/28/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	27	5.4	2.89	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	84	16.8	1.33	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	243	48.6	0.44
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	119	23.8	-0.39
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	18	3.6	-1.31	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	9	1.8	-3.64	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	354	70.8	0.84
Total # of DOWN Moves	146	29.2	-0.7
Total	500	100	0.39
Note: Shorts covering and dip buying helped the bulls today.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	SELL	27-APR-2010 at 1183	When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: SPY range bound (stay within the current dimand)  for the near term?

Reply to TSF's comments on "Spatial Sorting Part II"

TSF, here are the diamondwise charts for JNY on 3/02/2010, UP=2, DN=1, great time to buy, just breaks downtrend line as indicated by DN=1;

Another one is on 11/03/2009, DN=-1, it start a small downtrend afterwards.

Hope that helps. Thanks for your comments.

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $QQQQ, $IWM

Spatial Sorting-Part III

This post is after Part I and Part II


Type II Industry Group Ranking

Type II Spatial Sorting on 4/27/2010
1	Precision Instrument	BMI, BEC, CKP, CGNX, DHR, ESL, NEWP, PLXS, TMO, WAT
2	Homebuilding	BZH, BHS, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MHO, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, ITB
3	Retail (Special Lines)	ACMR, ANN, BBBY, BBY, BBW, CBK, CONN, GME, HGG, HOTT, JCG, JAS, MW, PETS, ROST, WSM
4	Machinery	CMCO, CMI, CW, DOV, FLOW, FLS, GGG, HURC, IEX
5	Retail Building Supply	BECN, BLDR, FAST, HD, IBI, LOW, LL, TSCO, WSO
6	Apparel	ANF, AEO, CACH, CHS, COH, CWTR, DBRN, GPS, GES, HBI, JNY, JOSB, LTD, LIZ, NWY, OXM, RL, SMRT, TLB, VFC
7	Chemical (Basic)	ASH, CE, CF, DOW, DD, FMC, GGC, OLN, SMG, SHW, WLK
8	Insurance (Prop/Casualty)	ALL, AIG, ACGL, AXS, CB, CINF, CNA, RE, HIG, L, PRE, PGR, TRV, WRB
9	Insurance (Life)	AEL, AGO, DFG, FFG, GNW, LNC, MET, PLFE, PL, PRU, SFG, UAM
10	Cement and Aggregates	CX, CRH, EXP, MLM, TXI, VMC
11	Petroleum (Integrated)	CVX, COP, XOM, FTO, HOC, MRO, MUR, SUN, TSO, VLO, IYE, IEO, IGE, PXE, XLE
12	Retail Store	BIG, COST, DDS, FDO, JCP, KSS, M, JWN, SKS, TGT, TJX, TUES, WMT, IYC
13	Diversified Co.	MMM, CR, FO, GY, GE, HSC, ROK, SXI, TFX, TXT, UTX
14	Shoe	BWS, CROX, DECK, ICON, KSWS, KCP, NKE, SKX, TBL, WWW
15	Long ETFs	BGU, TNA, DDM, IHF, IAT, TUR, QLD, PKB, PEJ, QQQQ, SSO
16	Human Resources	ASF, AHS, ADP, CDI, CCRN, HEW, HHGP, KELYA, MAN, ASGN, RHI, VOL
17	Natural Gas (Distributor)	CLNE, CPNO, EP, EOG, LG, NJR, GAS, NSH, SWX, UGI, WGL, WMB
18	Computers and Peripherals	AAPL, ARUN, CSCO, DELL, EFII, EMC, EMR, ELX, BGC, IN, LXK, NTAP, ZBRA
19	Aerospace/Defense	BA, FLIR, GD, GR, HON, LMT, NOC, RTN, COL, ITA, PPA
20	Telecom. Equipment	ADCT, ADTN, ARRS, CBEY, CIEN, CTV, CMTL, GLW, DTV, HLIT, HRS, INFN, JDSU, MOT, NTGR, PWAV, QCOM, SONS, TLAB
21	Trucking/Transp. Leasing	ABFS, CGI, CNW, FWRD, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, SAIA, WERN, YRCW
22	Packaging and Container	ATR, AVY, BLL, BMS, CCK, PKG, PTV, SEE, SLGN
23	Metal Fabricating	BOOM, ITW, KMT, LDSH, LAWS, MLI, PCP, SHAW, TKR, TIE, VMI
24	Furn/Home Furnishings	AYI, BSET, ETH, FBN, HNI, IFSIA, KBALB, LZB, LEG, MLHR, ZZ, SCS, TPX
25	Internet	AMZN, ATHR, ELNK, EBAY, FFIV, GOOG, JCOM, PCLN, RNWK, STMP, TZOO, UNTD, VRSN, YHOO
26	Securities Brokerage	ETFC, GS, IBKR, MS, RJF, SCHW, AMTD, IAI
27	Air Transport	ALK, AMR, CAL, EXPD, FDX, JBLU, LUV, UPS
28	Chemical (Diversified)	ACET, APD, ALB, BRC, CBT, EMN, MIL, MON, MOS, POT, PPG, PX, SIAL, TRA
29	Building Materials	AMWD, APOG, AWI, FRD, GFF, HAYN, HW, IIIN, LXU, MAS, MEA, NCS, NGA, NWPX, TREX, USG, XLB
30	Electric Utility (West)	BKH, EIX, HE, IDA, TEG, PCG, PNW, POR, XEL
31	Household Products	BTH, CHD, CLX, CL, KMB, NWL, NUS, PG, IYK, XLP
32	Investment Co. (Domestic)	DBA, PJB, PHO, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLK
33	Oilfield Svcs/Equipment	BJS, CPX, DO, DRQ, ESV, GLBL, GLF, MTRX, NBR, NOV, NE, PTEN, PDC, RDC, RES, SLB, SII, SE, RIG, IEZ, PXJ
34	Toiletries/Cosmetics	ACV, AVP, BARE, RDEN, EL, IPAR, PARL, FACE, RGS
35	Semiconductor Cap Equip.	AMAT, BRKS, ISIL, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, MTSN, NVLS, RMBS, SMTC, TER, VSEA, XLNX
36	Electric Utility (Central)	AEE, AEP, CNP, CNL, DPL, DTE, EDE, GXP, MGEE, NI, OGE, IDU, XLU
37	Semiconductor	AEIS, AMD, ANAD, CREE, CY, FORM, IDTI, INTC, IRF, LSI, WFR, MU, NSM, NVDA, QLGC, RFMD, TXN, IGW
38	Chemical (Specialty)	AGU, ARG, CRDN, FOE, NEU, PKE, POL, KWR, SHLM, TG, ZEP
39	Insurance (Diversified)	AFL, AON, AIZ, CNO, PICO, PFG, TMK, UNM, XL
40	Petroleum (Producing)	APC, APA, ATW, CXG, CLR, FST, HP, HERO, NBL, OXY, PDE, UDRL, XTO, UGA, USO
41	Medical Supplies	ABAX, ABT, ACL, BAX, BIO, XRAY, HSIC, HOLX, ISRG, IVC, JNJ, MDT, MWIV, OMI, PMTI, PDCO, PSSI, STJ, SRDX, IHI
42	Coal	ACI, ICO, JRCC, MEE, PCX, BTU
43	Biotechnology	AGN, ABC, AMGN, AMLN, ANIK, BIIB, BMRN, CELG, CRL, DNDN, GILD, HGSI, ILMN, JAZZ, LIFE, MNKD, MDVN, MIPI, MYGN, OSIP, PDLI, SVNT, SOMX, TECH, VRTX, VVUS, IBB, PBE
44	Electric Utility (East)	AES, CV, CHG, ED, D, DUK, EXC, FE, FPL, NST, PGN, PEG, SO, TE, UIL
45	Investment Co. (Foreign)	FXI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, MXI
46	Natural Gas (Diversified)	AGL, ATO, COG, DVN, EGN, EQT, NFG, NFX, OKE, STR, SUG, SWN, UNG
47	Food Processing	ADM, BG, CALM, CPB, CQB, CAG, FDP, GIS, HSY, HNZ, K, KFT, LANC, SLE
48	Metals and Mining (Div.)	AA, CENX, WIRE, FCX, HL, KALU, RTI, SCCO, SLT, SWC, IYM, SLV, GLD
49	Drug	ALKS, BMY, CEPH, HITK, IDXX, INCY, LLY, MRK, MYL, PFE, TEVA, IHE, PJP, XLV
50	Alternate Energy	AMSC, HEV, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, FCEL, SOLF, SPWRA, STP, ULBI, YGE
51	Short ETFs	BGZ, TZA, DOG, DXD, PSQ, QID, SH, SDS, SMN, SZK, SCC, SKF, SIJ, DUG, SRS, SSG, REW, SDP

Type I Spatial Sorting on 4/27/2010
1	Shoe	BWS, CROX, DECK, ICON, KSWS, KCP, NKE, SKX, TBL, WWW
2	Aerospace/Defense	BA, FLIR, GD, GR, HON, LMT, NOC, RTN, COL, ITA, PPA
3	Retail Store	BIG, COST, DDS, FDO, JCP, KSS, M, JWN, SKS, TGT, TJX, TUES, WMT, IYC
4	Long ETFs	BGU, TNA, DDM, IHF, IAT, TUR, QLD, PKB, PEJ, QQQQ, SSO
5	Household Products	BTH, CHD, CLX, CL, KMB, NWL, NUS, PG, IYK, XLP
6	Electric Utility (West)	BKH, EIX, HE, IDA, TEG, PCG, PNW, POR, XEL
7	Computers and Peripherals	AAPL, ARUN, CSCO, DELL, EFII, EMC, EMR, ELX, BGC, IN, LXK, NTAP, ZBRA
8	Furn/Home Furnishings	AYI, BSET, ETH, FBN, HNI, IFSIA, KBALB, LZB, LEG, MLHR, ZZ, SCS, TPX
9	Precision Instrument	BMI, BEC, CKP, CGNX, DHR, ESL, NEWP, PLXS, TMO, WAT
10	Trucking/Transp. Leasing	ABFS, CGI, CNW, FWRD, HTLD, HUBG, JBHT, SAIA, WERN, YRCW
11	Retail (Special Lines)	ACMR, ANN, BBBY, BBY, BBW, CBK, CONN, GME, HGG, HOTT, JCG, JAS, MW, PETS, ROST, WSM
12	Coal	ACI, ICO, JRCC, MEE, PCX, BTU
13	Metal Fabricating	BOOM, ITW, KMT, LDSH, LAWS, MLI, PCP, SHAW, TKR, TIE, VMI
14	Chemical (Specialty)	AGU, ARG, CRDN, FOE, NEU, PKE, POL, KWR, SHLM, TG, ZEP
15	Internet	AMZN, ATHR, ELNK, EBAY, FFIV, GOOG, JCOM, PCLN, RNWK, STMP, TZOO, UNTD, VRSN, YHOO
16	Natural Gas (Diversified)	AGL, ATO, COG, DVN, EGN, EQT, NFG, NFX, OKE, STR, SUG, SWN, UNG
17	Investment Co. (Domestic)	DBA, PJB, PHO, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLK
18	Packaging and Container	ATR, AVY, BLL, BMS, CCK, PKG, PTV, SEE, SLGN
19	Diversified Co.	MMM, CR, FO, GY, GE, HSC, ROK, SXI, TFX, TXT, UTX
20	Chemical (Diversified)	ACET, APD, ALB, BRC, CBT, EMN, MIL, MON, MOS, POT, PPG, PX, SIAL, TRA
21	Retail Building Supply	BECN, BLDR, FAST, HD, IBI, LOW, LL, TSCO, WSO
22	Semiconductor Cap Equip.	AMAT, BRKS, ISIL, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, MTSN, NVLS, RMBS, SMTC, TER, VSEA, XLNX
23	Electric Utility (Central)	AEE, AEP, CNP, CNL, DPL, DTE, EDE, GXP, MGEE, NI, OGE, IDU, XLU
24	Semiconductor	AEIS, AMD, ANAD, CREE, CY, FORM, IDTI, INTC, IRF, LSI, WFR, MU, NSM, NVDA, QLGC, RFMD, TXN, IGW
25	Insurance (Diversified)	AFL, AON, AIZ, CNO, PICO, PFG, TMK, UNM, XL
26	Drug	ALKS, BMY, CEPH, HITK, IDXX, INCY, LLY, MRK, MYL, PFE, TEVA, IHE, PJP, XLV
27	Chemical (Basic)	ASH, CE, CF, DOW, DD, FMC, GGC, OLN, SMG, SHW, WLK
28	Metals and Mining (Div.)	AA, CENX, WIRE, FCX, HL, KALU, RTI, SCCO, SLT, SWC, IYM, SLV, GLD
29	Investment Co. (Foreign)	FXI, EWA, EWK, EWZ, EWC, ECH, EEM, EWQ, EWG, EWH, EWI, EWJ, EWM, EWW, EPP, EWS, EZA, EWY, EWP, EWD, EWL, EWT, EWU, IEV, IXC, IXN, ILF, MXI
30	Apparel	ANF, AEO, CACH, CHS, COH, CWTR, DBRN, GPS, GES, HBI, JNY, JOSB, LTD, LIZ, NWY, OXM, RL, SMRT, TLB, VFC
31	Air Transport	ALK, AMR, CAL, EXPD, FDX, JBLU, LUV, UPS
32	Toiletries/Cosmetics	ACV, AVP, BARE, RDEN, EL, IPAR, PARL, FACE, RGS
33	Petroleum (Producing)	APC, APA, ATW, CXG, CLR, FST, HP, HERO, NBL, OXY, PDE, UDRL, XTO, UGA, USO
34	Medical Supplies	ABAX, ABT, ACL, BAX, BIO, XRAY, HSIC, HOLX, ISRG, IVC, JNJ, MDT, MWIV, OMI, PMTI, PDCO, PSSI, STJ, SRDX, IHI
35	Electric Utility (East)	AES, CV, CHG, ED, D, DUK, EXC, FE, FPL, NST, PGN, PEG, SO, TE, UIL
36	Machinery	CMCO, CMI, CW, DOV, FLOW, FLS, GGG, HURC, IEX
37	Telecom. Equipment	ADCT, ADTN, ARRS, CBEY, CIEN, CTV, CMTL, GLW, DTV, HLIT, HRS, INFN, JDSU, MOT, NTGR, PWAV, QCOM, SONS, TLAB
38	Oilfield Svcs/Equipment	BJS, CPX, DO, DRQ, ESV, GLBL, GLF, MTRX, NBR, NOV, NE, PTEN, PDC, RDC, RES, SLB, SII, SE, RIG, IEZ, PXJ
39	Building Materials	AMWD, APOG, AWI, FRD, GFF, HAYN, HW, IIIN, LXU, MAS, MEA, NCS, NGA, NWPX, TREX, USG, XLB
40	Natural Gas (Distributor)	CLNE, CPNO, EP, EOG, LG, NJR, GAS, NSH, SWX, UGI, WGL, WMB
41	Biotechnology	AGN, ABC, AMGN, AMLN, ANIK, BIIB, BMRN, CELG, CRL, DNDN, GILD, HGSI, ILMN, JAZZ, LIFE, MNKD, MDVN, MIPI, MYGN, OSIP, PDLI, SVNT, SOMX, TECH, VRTX, VVUS, IBB, PBE
42	Food Processing	ADM, BG, CALM, CPB, CQB, CAG, FDP, GIS, HSY, HNZ, K, KFT, LANC, SLE
43	Insurance (Life)	AEL, AGO, DFG, FFG, GNW, LNC, MET, PLFE, PL, PRU, SFG, UAM
44	Human Resources	ASF, AHS, ADP, CDI, CCRN, HEW, HHGP, KELYA, MAN, ASGN, RHI, VOL
45	Insurance (Prop/Casualty)	ALL, AIG, ACGL, AXS, CB, CINF, CNA, RE, HIG, L, PRE, PGR, TRV, WRB
46	Short ETFs	BGZ, TZA, DOG, DXD, PSQ, QID, SH, SDS, SMN, SZK, SCC, SKF, SIJ, DUG, SRS, SSG, REW, SDP
47	Alternate Energy	AMSC, HEV, ENER, ESLR, FSLR, FCEL, SOLF, SPWRA, STP, ULBI, YGE
48	Petroleum (Integrated)	CVX, COP, XOM, FTO, HOC, MRO, MUR, SUN, TSO, VLO, IYE, IEO, IGE, PXE, XLE
49	Securities Brokerage	ETFC, GS, IBKR, MS, RJF, SCHW, AMTD, IAI
50	Cement and Aggregates	CX, CRH, EXP, MLM, TXI, VMC
51	Homebuilding	BZH, BHS, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MHO, MDC, PHM, RYL, SPF, TOL, ITB

I will post the rankings for the past ??? days this weekend, I will also post the industry group ranking based on Jeff Augen's behavior model.

Like Tom said, I believe that only buy stocks from strong industry groups will do very good for long run.

  


Type I Industry Group Ranking:

Spatial Sorting-Part II

In case you missed it, here is part I of Spatial Sorting.


The diamonds in the chart are made from the crossing of up slope lines and down slope lines.

There are two ways we can rank the location of a diamond

(1) Type I Ranking: The distance to the critical up trend line (the more above the up trend line, the higher the ranking).

(2) Type II Ranking: The distance to the critical down trend line (The more above the down trend line, the higher the ranking)


Compare JNY and SBUX below: For JNY, the distance to up trend line is 3 (UP=3, 3 is normalized number, no unit), and the distance to down trend line is 6 (DN=6). For SBUX, UP=4, DN=5. So for Type I ranking , SBUX is higher, while for Type II ranking, JNY is higher. Since the market has been in uptrend past year, so the Type I ranking is long term ranking, and Type II is more or less intermediate term.

 

 
 
I will use Thomas N. Bulkowski’s industry group as a starting point. (I may modify the components in each industry group in the future).


Tom publishes the ranking based on 6 month relative strength in his website. Tom has also an intensive study about how to use the ranking.

Tom states “If you buy all of the stocks in the industry ranked 1 for performance and hold them until the rank fell below 14 (and sell them), you would have made an average of 28.1% from 1/1/1995 to 11/9/2007. The S&P 500 index, over the same hold time, gained an average of just 2.3%. There were 114 trades made during that period.”

The Type II ranking on 4/27/2010 is shown below:

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 27-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: Wow, What a day, I really hope you came out OK today. I personally took big losses today. The market goes down because there are more willing sellers than buyers. Volume is huge, and another bad news is our intermediate term SP500 turned into SELL mode today. I will post the industry group ranking based on spatial sorting later tonight. Be careful, and be cautious if you are still long. Control your risk, and Good Lucks in your trading.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/27/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	2	0.4	4.18	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	3	0.6	1.62	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	16	3.2	0.27
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	61	12.2	-0.6
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	192	38.4	-1.56	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	226	45.2	-2.99	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	21	4.2	0.84
Total # of DOWN Moves	479	95.8	-2.11
Total	500	100	-1.99
Note: 226 stocks down over 2STD !!!. The market may bounce tomorrow, but the technical damage is just too big today.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10967 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	SELL	27-APR-2010 at 1183	When Daily Close Price > 1215 Mode will be BUY
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: SP500 turned into sell mode today, it needs go up to 1215 to become buy mode.
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: The bears may be happy today, but the long term chart is still very healthy, now I believe we will stay within the yellow diamond for next month.

Daily DiamondWise Charts: $JNY, $DPS, $MEA, $RFMD

Will watch on these on pullbacks if any.
JNY
DPS
MEA
RFMD

Spatial Sorting-Part 1

It is my belief that if you only associate yourself with good and strong stocks, you can become a much better trader.


The question is now how do we generate a list of good stocks or ETFs by filtering, or sorting, or ranking so that we can buy from. By monitoring the ranking changes, we may also find the trend changes among the stocks (sectors, or industry groups)

I have been using the following ranking methods:

(1) The relative strength ranking: ranking by the percentage change in a certain period.
This is what most people do.

(2) I used the ranking by the Jeff Augen’s behavior model. This is trying to “normalize” the percentage changes, and making the comparison between stocks more “fair”.

(3) The “Spatial Sorting” is the subject of this post. It is based upon the “Spatial location” in the diamondwise chart. The location of the current diamond the stock is residing determines the sorting order. The more upper diamond the stock resides, the higher the ranking.


The reason I don’t like to use the relative strength ranking is that it does not consider the chart pattern. For example, consider stock MCD and JPM, as of today (4/26/2010), the one year return for both JPM and MCD are very close to 31%. But if you look at the charts below, which chart is better?

The current diamond the MCD resides is higher than the diamond the JPM resides. In the relative strength ranking, both are same, but in our “Spatial Sorting”, the MCD is ranked much higher than JPM.

Here is the top 5 “Spatial Sorting” from Dow 30 stocks for the last 20 days. If I have to buy stocks from DOW 30 stocks, I would buy these 5 stocks.

I will apply this sorting method to Sectors and Industry Groups tomorrow. Meanwhile, Please send me any suggestions and comments. Thank you.

Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 26-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Short-term buy signal: Bulls>Bears and Bulls>=25; Sell signal: Bears>Bulls and Bears>=25
Comments: The market seems tired, but I am still a bull. Low volume pullback is healthy. I would only worry if there is any high volume sell off in the next few days. I am almost done with "Sector Spatial Sorting", I will start posting on it in the next few days. Thank you, TSF, for your very encouraging comment and great suggestions on Sector Analysis yesterday.  TSF says in comments"...You are an excellent market watcher and you have an excellent blog. May I suggest that you build on your own strengths and the strengths of your blog, which can be summarized as LESS IS MORE...K.I.S.S. Keep it smart and simple". Thank you!
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/26/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	5	1	2.95	Click here to show stocks
UP between 1 to 2 STD	30	6	1.38	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	158	31.6	0.41
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	213	42.6	-0.5
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	71	14.2	-1.39	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	23	4.6	-2.53	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	193	38.6	0.62
Total # of DOWN Moves	307	61.4	-0.86
Total	500	100	-0.29
Note: The bears have upper hand today in market internal.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10947 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	BUY	18-Feb-2010 at 1107	When Daily Close Price < 1188 Mode will be SELL
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments:
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: I hope the SPY will follow my arrows shown; the black arrow will enter the upper diamond. We shall wait and see.