PCLN Jeff Augen model: don't use Iron Condor for earnings play

Many options experts like to play earnings event by selling iron condor, because they knew the volatility will be crushed after the earnings annoucement. A few days ago, I wrote a Note about Jeff Augen's way to look past years price behavior to see how many big spikes in positive side and negative side. Below is a plot for PCLN,

You can clearly see PCLN experienced 2 big spikes (almost over 8 STD, yes, it is 8 STD) over last 200 days, when you saw that picture, you would never sell iron condor yesterday. Today PCLN moved up 4.47 STD. If you sold iron condor option yesterday, you would lose badly today. Next time before you use iron condor to play earnings, make sure you check the JeffAugen plot.

Just for fun, the plot below shows price along with the vertical lines of down over 2 STD days: