Bulls vs. Bears and Market Summary on 16-APR-2010

Short Term Bulls vs. Bears Scoring System
Comments: I had a very bad day today, the option expiration day. I was expecting all my options vertical puts I sold to be expired worthlessly. To be honest, I forget I had GS 165/160 put verticals, because it was worthless for long time, at around 11 AM, I noticed a big red numbers in my account, only then I realized I had GS 165/160 put verticals. To lose money on my GS position, the GS needs down over 20 points today. It down 23 points today. The "Black Swan Event" does occur !; big lessons learned today. I will not try to make the last cents in the future, I should close the put verticals when the most money was made. I also believe the GS news today will change the market trend, at least for the short term. The Bears score is now 25. I am bias to bears side and remain bearish bias for the short term, until the SPY can close above yestersday's high on a close basis. I hope you had a better day than me. Another note: In the past I generated all my tables and figures by MATLAB, I am slowly converting to EXCEL. This table is generated by EXCEL. My plan is to generate all the tables and figures by EXCEL in the future.
Summary of S&P 500 Stocks Daily Price Change Behavior Model 4/16/2010
Type of Daily Move	# of Stocks	Percent of all stocks	Avg Move	Symbols of the Moves
UP over 2 STD	0	0	0
UP between 1 to 2 STD	8	1.6	1.5	Click here to show stocks
UP between 0 to 1 STD	40	8	0.37
DOWN between 0 to 1 STD	153	30.6	-0.61
DOWN between 1 to 2 STD	217	43.4	-1.4	Click here to show stocks
DOWN over 2 STD	82	16.4	-2.98	Click here to show stocks
Total # of UP Moves	48	9.6	0.56
Total # of DOWN Moves	452	90.4	-1.42
Total	500	100	-1.23
Note: The bears won big today.
				How to read this table
Intermediate Term Market Mode
INDEX	Current Mode	Signal Date and Price	Mode Change Price
DOW	BUY	17-Feb-2010 at 10309	When Daily Close Price < 10947 Mode will be SELL
S&P500	BUY	18-Feb-2010 at 1107	When Daily Close Price < 1188 Mode will be SELL
NASADQ	BUY	19-Feb-2010 at 2243	When Daily Close Price < 2444 Mode will be SELL
Comments: Very close to trend change in SP500
Long Term ZigZag View of SPY
Comments: GOOG's 45 points drop was somewhat expected, the option volatility points to 50 points range move after the earnings, but GS's 23 points drop is a black swan event to me. Have a great weekend.